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The Effect of Covid-19 Outbreak on Turkish Diesel Consumption Volatility Dynamics

Author

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  • Ertugrul, H. Murat
  • Güngör, B. Oray
  • Soytas, Ugur

Abstract

We analyze the effect of the COVID-19 outbreak on volatility dynamics of the Turkish diesel market. We observe that a high volatility pattern starts around mid-April, 2020 and reaches its peak on 24/05/2020. This is due to the government imposed weekend curfews and bans on intercity travels. Two policy suggestions are provided. First is a temporary rearrangement of profit margins of dealers and liquid fuel distributors; and, second is a temporary tax regulation to compensate lost tax revenue.

Suggested Citation

  • Ertugrul, H. Murat & Güngör, B. Oray & Soytas, Ugur, 2020. "The Effect of Covid-19 Outbreak on Turkish Diesel Consumption Volatility Dynamics," MPRA Paper 110166, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:110166
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    Cited by:

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    9. Chen, Yin-E & Li, Chunyan & Chang, Chun-Ping & Zheng, Mingbo, 2021. "Identifying the influence of natural disasters on technological innovation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 22-36.
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    11. Naidu, Dharmendra & Ranjeeni, Kumari, 2021. "Effect of coronavirus fear on the performance of Australian stock returns: Evidence from an event study," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
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    14. Güngör, Bekir Oray & Ertuğrul, H. Murat & Soytaş, Uğur, 2021. "Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    15. Feng, Gen-Fu & Yang, Hao-Chang & Gong, Qiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2021. "What is the exchange rate volatility response to COVID-19 and government interventions?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 705-719.
    16. Kai-Hua Wang & Chi-Wei Su, 2021. "Asymmetric Link Between COVID-19 and Fossil Energy Prices," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-5.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Diesel Consumption; ARIMA Models; ARCH Family Models; Covid-19 pandemic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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