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Exploring the representativeness of the M5 competition data

Author

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  • Theodorou, Evangelos
  • Wang, Shengjie
  • Kang, Yanfei
  • Spiliotis, Evangelos
  • Makridakis, Spyros
  • Assimakopoulos, Vassilios

Abstract

The main objective of the M5 competition, which focused on forecasting the hierarchical unit sales of Walmart, was to evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty of forecasting methods in the field to identify best practices and highlight their practical implications. However, can the findings of the M5 competition be generalized and exploited by retail firms to better support their decisions and operation? This depends on the extent to which M5 data is sufficiently similar to unit sales data of retailers operating in different regions selling different product types and considering different marketing strategies. To answer this question, we analyze the characteristics of the M5 time series and compare them with those of two grocery retailers, namely Corporación Favorita and a major Greek supermarket chain, using feature spaces. Our results suggest only minor discrepancies between the examined data sets, supporting the representativeness of the M5 data.

Suggested Citation

  • Theodorou, Evangelos & Wang, Shengjie & Kang, Yanfei & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Makridakis, Spyros & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2022. "Exploring the representativeness of the M5 competition data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1500-1506.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:38:y:2022:i:4:p:1500-1506
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.07.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Chen, Zhi & Gaba, Anil & Tsetlin, Ilia & Winkler, Robert L., 2022. "The M5 uncertainty competition: Results, findings and conclusions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1365-1385.
    2. Wang, Shengjie & Kang, Yanfei & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2024. "Combining probabilistic forecasts of intermittent demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 315(3), pages 1038-1048.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting competitions; M5; Time series visualization; Time series features; Retail sales forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M5 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics

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