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Forecasting risk in the US Dollar exchange rate under volatility shifts

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  • Anjum, Hassan
  • Malik, Farooq

Abstract

Recent evidence suggests that volatility shifts (i.e. structural breaks in volatility) in returns increases kurtosis which significantly contributes to the observed non-normality in market returns. In this paper, we endogenously detect significant shifts in the volatility of US Dollar exchange rate and incorporate this information to estimate Value-at-Risk (VaR) to forecast large declines in the US Dollar exchange rate. Our out-of-sample performance results indicate that a GARCH model with volatility shifts produces the most accurate VaR forecast relative to several benchmark methods. Our contribution is important as changes in US Dollar exchange rate have a substantial impact on the global economy and financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Anjum, Hassan & Malik, Farooq, 2020. "Forecasting risk in the US Dollar exchange rate under volatility shifts," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:54:y:2020:i:c:s1062940820301546
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2020.101257
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    3. Castillo, Brenda & León, Ángel & Ñíguez, Trino-Manuel, 2021. "Backtesting VaR under the COVID-19 sudden changes in volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    4. Anwer, Zaheer & Khan, Ashraf & Kabir Hassan, M. & Rashid, Mamunur, 2022. "Does the regional proximity lead to exchange rate spillover?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
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    6. Katleho Makatjane, 2022. "Forecasting Uncertainty Intervals for Return Period of Extreme Daily Electricity Consumption," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(4), pages 217-225, July.
    7. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Do, Hung Xuan, 2022. "Dynamic volatility connectedness between thermal coal futures and major cryptocurrencies: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate volatility; Structural breaks; GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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