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Disentangling loan demand and supply shocks in Russia

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  • Deryugina, Elena
  • Kovalenko, Olga
  • Pantina, Irina
  • Ponomarenko, Alexey

Abstract

​This article presents three alternative models for decomposing loan developments into components associated with changes in loan demand and supply fundamentals. Two models are based on macro data (error correction model and structural vector autoregression with sign restrictions) and one is based on bank-specific Bank Lending Survey results. We conclude that although loan growth in Russia converges to a long-run equilibrium determined by macroeconomic (demand) factors the convergence is likely to be driven by bank-side (supply) shocks. We identify large and unexplained supply shocks in loan fluctuations during the crisis of 2008–2009, signifying an impairment of credit markets. We also find contractionary shocks unrelated to demand fundamentals or balance sheet structures in 2013, although in general loan developments in 2013 and the first half of 2014 were not at all extraordinary.

Suggested Citation

  • Deryugina, Elena & Kovalenko, Olga & Pantina, Irina & Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2015. "Disentangling loan demand and supply shocks in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2015_008
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    Cited by:

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    3. Guevara, Carlos & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2020. "The role of credit supply shocks in pacific alliance countries: A TVP-VAR-SV approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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