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The Relationship between Oil and Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Quantile Causality Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mehmet Balcilar

    (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Northern Cyprus , via Mersin 10,Turkey;Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa.)

  • Shinhye Chang

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Vanessa Kasongo

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Clement Kyei

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

This paper investigates causality between oil prices and the prices of agricultural commodities in South Africa. We use daily data covering the period April 19, 2005 to July 31, 2014 for oil prices and the prices of soya beans, wheat, sunflower and corn. The test for Granger causality in conditional quantiles as proposed by Jeong et al., (2012) was employed. Our findings show that the effect of oil prices on agricultural commodity prices varies across the different quantiles of the conditional distribution. The impact on the tails is lower compared to the rest of the distribution. However, the highest impact is not necessarily at the mean. We show that due to nonlinear dependence between oil prices and agricultural commodity prices, regular Granger causality provides misleading results and also fails to characterize the relationship over the entire conditional joint distribution of the variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Balcilar & Shinhye Chang & Rangan Gupta & Vanessa Kasongo & Clement Kyei, 2014. "The Relationship between Oil and Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Quantile Causality Approach," Working Papers 201468, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201468
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2017. "The role of oil prices in the forecasts of South African interest rates: A Bayesian approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 270-278.
    3. Anu K. Toriola, 2022. "Effects of Agricultural Commodity Prices on Agricultural Output in Nigeria," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(3), pages 170-176.
    4. Mehmet Balcilar & Festus Victor Bekun, 2020. "Spillover dynamics across price inflation and selected agricultural commodity prices," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Sima Siami-Namini, 2019. "Volatility Transmission Among Oil Price, Exchange Rate and Agricultural Commodities Prices," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(4), pages 41-61, July.
    6. Mehmet Balcilar & Ojonugwa Usman & Busra Agan, 2024. "On the connectedness of commodity markets: A critical and selective survey of empirical studies and bibliometric analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 97-136, February.
    7. Siami-Namini, Sima & Hudson, Darren, 2017. "Volatility Spillover Between Oil Prices, Us Dollar Exchange Rates And International Agricultural Commodities Prices," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252845, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    8. Korhan K. Gokmenoglu & Hasan Güngör & Festus Victor Bekun, 2021. "Revisiting the linkage between oil and agricultural commodity prices: Panel evidence from an Agrarian state," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5610-5620, October.
    9. Aye, Goodness C., 2016. "Causality between Oil Price and South Africa's Food Price: Time Varying Approach - Relazione di causalità tra prezzo del petrolio e pr ezzo dei prodotti alimentari in Sud Africa: un approccio time var," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 69(3), pages 193-212.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Granger causality; South Africa; Nonparametric test; Quantile causality; Commodity prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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