IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v25y2013icp40-59.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of China's currency valuation and labour cost on the US in a trade and exchange rate model

Author

Listed:
  • Bhattarai, Keshab
  • Mallick, Sushanta

Abstract

Ricardian dynamic general equilibrium analyses show that under free trade arrangements a low income country with lower wage cost and large endowment of labour has comparative advantage in trade. Efficiency gains from this enhance economic growth and welfare of households simultaneously in both low income and advanced economies. Theoretical predictions are empirically validated here with structural VAR analysis based on quarterly data over the time period 1995:1 to 2009:1 on China's relative wage cost, interest rate differential, real effective exchange rate (REER), relative GDP and the US current account balance. It is shown how the relative prices of labour, capital and the currency affect the economic activity in China and current account balance in the US. With free capital inflows and outflows and restrictions on labour mobility, comparative advantage of China and the trade deficit of the US will both be minimised if China allows real appreciation of the Yuan and complete adjustment in prices. Higher production cost and prices in China could reduce welfare of Chinese households and the trade imbalance of the US, while higher relative GDP of China lowers the current account balance for the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhattarai, Keshab & Mallick, Sushanta, 2013. "Impact of China's currency valuation and labour cost on the US in a trade and exchange rate model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 40-59.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:25:y:2013:i:c:p:40-59
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2013.03.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940813000417
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2013.03.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baldwin, Richard E, 1992. "Measurable Dynamic Gains from Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(1), pages 162-174, February.
    2. Mehrotra, Aaron N., 2007. "Exchange and interest rate channels during a deflationary era--Evidence from Japan, Hong Kong and China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 188-210, March.
    3. Jean M. Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2010. "One TV, One Price?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(4), pages 753-781, December.
    4. JaeBin Ahn & Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Trade Finance and the Great Trade Collapse," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 298-302, May.
    5. Rafiq, M.S. & Mallick, S.K., 2008. "The effect of monetary policy on output in EMU3: A sign restriction approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1756-1791, December.
    6. Markusen, James R & Svensson, Lars E O, 1985. "Trade in Goods and Factors with International Differences in Technology," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(1), pages 175-192, February.
    7. Neary, Peter, 1988. "Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 210-215, March.
    8. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    9. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1997. "International Macroeconomic Dynamics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262201119, December.
    10. Gita Gopinath & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Nicholas Li, 2011. "International Prices, Costs, and Markup Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2450-2486, October.
    11. Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 857-880.
    12. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1990. "Comparative Advantage and Long-run Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 796-815, September.
    13. Cargill, Thomas F. & Parker, Elliott, 2004. "Price deflation, money demand, and monetary policy discontinuity: a comparative view of Japan, China, and the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 125-147, March.
    14. Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta & Zeng, Ning, 2011. "Chinese exchange rate and price effects on G3 import prices," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 427-440.
    15. Jonathan Eaton & Robert Dekle & Samuel Kortum, 2007. "Unbalanced Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 351-355, May.
    16. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-959, December.
    17. Jonathan Eaton, 1987. "A Dynamic Specific-Factors Model of International Trade," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 54(2), pages 325-338.
    18. repec:hhs:iuiwop:430 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    20. Jaime Marquez & John Schindler, 2007. "Exchange‐rate Effects on China's Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 837-853, November.
    21. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845, January.
    22. Meade, James E, 1993. "The Meaning of "Internal Balance."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(6), pages 3-9, December.
    23. Mark David Witte, 2009. "Pricing to Market: Chinese Export Pricing to the USA after the Peg," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(2), pages 65-78, March.
    24. Chenggang Xu, 2011. "The Fundamental Institutions of China's Reforms and Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1076-1151, December.
    25. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    26. Norman, Victor D & Venables, Anthony J, 1995. "International Trade, Factor Mobility and Trade Costs," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(433), pages 1488-1504, November.
    27. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2007. "United States‐China Trade At The Commodity Level And The Yuan‐Dollar Exchange Rate," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(3), pages 341-361, July.
    28. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ratha, Artatrana, 2010. "S-Curve dynamics of trade between U.S. and China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 212-223, June.
    29. Jaume Ventura, 1997. "Growth and Interdependence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(1), pages 57-84.
    30. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra, 2009. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Competition between Floaters and Fixers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 35-70, February.
    31. Robin Naylor, 2000. "Trade and Wages When the Trade Regime is Determined Endogenously," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 556-565, August.
    32. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    33. Marcus H. Miller & John E. Spencer, 1977. "The Static Economic Effects of the UK joining the EEC: A General Equilibrium Approach," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 44(1), pages 71-93.
    34. repec:bla:reviec:v:8:y:2000:i:3:p:556-65 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Frenkel, Jacob A & Mussa, Michael L, 1981. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in an Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 253-258, May.
    36. Zhenhui Xu, 2008. "China's Exchange Rate Policy and Its Trade Balance with the US," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 714-727, November.
    37. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    38. Keshab Bhattarai, 2011. "Econometric and stochastic general equilibrium models for evaluation of economic policies," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(2), pages 212-241.
    39. BAAK, SaangJoon, 2008. "The bilateral real exchange rates and trade between China and the U.S," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 117-127, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Keshab Raj Bhattarai, 2016. "Economic Growth and Development in India and SAARC Countries," EcoMod2016 9631, EcoMod.
    2. Bianca COSTACHE, 2018. "The Impact of Compensation Growth on Inflation Rate and Unemployment," Hyperion Economic Journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Hyperion University of Bucharest, Romania, vol. 6(1), pages 27-32, March.
    3. Florian Morvillier, 2019. "Do currency undervaluations affect the impact of inflation on growth?," Post-Print hal-02138677, HAL.
    4. Ahmed, Abdullahi D. & Huo, Rui, 2019. "Impacts of China's crash on Asia-Pacific financial integration: Volatility interdependence, information transmission and market co-movement," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 28-46.
    5. Metelli, Luca & Natoli, Filippo, 2017. "The effect of a Chinese slowdown on inflation in the euro area and the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 16-22.
    6. Keshab Raj Bhattarai & Sushanta K. Mallick, 2015. "Macroeconomic policy coordination in the global economy: VAR and BVAR-DSGE analyses," EcoMod2015 8610, EcoMod.
    7. Rohit, Abhishek Kumar & Dash, Pradyumna, 2019. "Dynamics of monetary policy spillover: The role of exchange rate regimes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 276-288.
    8. Bertsatos, Georgios & Tsounis, Nicholas & Agiomirgianakis, George, 2024. "Handling asymmetries in the trade balance," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 1-13.
    9. Caamal-Olvera, Cinthya G. & Rangel-González, Erick, 2015. "Measuring the impact of the Chinese competition on the Mexican Labor Market: 1990–2013," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 351-363.
    10. Morvillier, Florian, 2020. "Do currency undervaluations affect the impact of inflation on growth?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 275-292.
    11. Guo, Junjie & Li, Xuelian & Zhang, Weiran & Li, Youshu, 2024. "Monetary policy spillovers among five systemic economies: Evidence from the time and frequency domains," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    12. Bhattarai, Keshab, 2016. "Unemployment–inflation trade-offs in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 93-103.
    13. Bosupeng, Mpho & Naranpanawa, Athula & Su, Jen-Je, 2024. "Does exchange rate volatility affect the impact of appreciation and depreciation on the trade balance? A nonlinear bivariate approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    14. Zhang, Dayong & Lei, Lei & Ji, Qiang & Kutan, Ali M., 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty in the US and China and their impact on the global markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 47-56.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alessandria, George & Choi, Horag & Ruhl, Kim J., 2021. "Trade adjustment dynamics and the welfare gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson, 2021. "Import liberalization as export destruction? Evidence from the United States," CEP Discussion Papers dp1779, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.
    4. Helena Marques, 2008. "Trade And Factor Flows In A Diverse Eu: What Lessons For The Eastern Enlargement(S)?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 364-408, April.
    5. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2009. "Distribution of Consumption, Production and Trade within the U.S," MPRA Paper 16361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Kleinman, Benny & Liu, Ernest & Redding, Stephen & Yogo, Motohiro, 2023. "Neoclassical Growth in an Interdependent World," CEPR Discussion Papers 18654, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Kyoji Fukao & Victoria Kravtsova & Kentaro Nakajima, 2014. "How important is geographical agglomeration to factory efficiency in Japan’s manufacturing sector?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(3), pages 659-696, May.
    8. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Eduardo Morales & Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato & Owen Zidar, 2019. "State Taxes and Spatial Misallocation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(1), pages 333-376.
    9. Rahel Aichele, 2013. "Trade, Climate Policy and Carbon Leakage - Theory and Empirical Evidence," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 49.
    10. Mauro Lanati, 2013. "Estimating the elasticity of trade: the trade share approach," LEM Papers Series 2013/10, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    11. Rodrigo Adão & Costas Arkolakis & Federico Esposito, 2019. "General Equilibrium Effects in Space: Theory and Measurement," NBER Working Papers 25544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2021. "Accounting for trade deficits," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    13. Kohler Wilhelm & Jung Benjamin, 2017. "Wie vorteilhaft ist internationaler Handel?: Ein neuer Ansatz zur Vermessung der Gewinne," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 32-55, April.
    14. Hoste, J. & Verboven, F., 2024. "Uncovering the Sources of Cross-border Market Segmentation: Evidence from the EU and the US," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2402, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    15. Baier, Scott L. & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2019. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 206-226.
    16. Ralph Ossa, 2011. "A "New Trade" Theory of GATT/WTO Negotiations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 122-152.
    17. Mauro Lanati, 2013. "Estimating the elasticity of trade: the trade share approach," Discussion Papers 2013/159, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    18. Thomas Goda & Santiago Sánchez González, 2024. "Export Market Size Matters: The Effect of the Market Size of Export Destinations on Manufacturing Growth," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 21-44, January.
    19. Breinlich, Holger & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2014. "Regional Growth and Regional Decline," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 4, pages 683-779, Elsevier.
    20. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 2017. "Geographical advantage: Home market effect in a multi-region world," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(4), pages 740-758.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Comparative advantage; Growth; Exchange rate; China; US;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P45 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - International Linkages
    • P51 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:25:y:2013:i:c:p:40-59. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.