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The stickiness of pandemic-driven disenrollment from public schools

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  • Bacher-Hicks, Andrew
  • Musaddiq, Tareena
  • Goodman, Joshua
  • Stange, Kevin

Abstract

The extent to which pandemic-induced public school enrollment declines will persist is unclear. Student-level data from Michigan through fall 2021 yields three relevant findings. First, relative to pre-pandemic trends, fall 2021 enrollment had partially recovered for low-income, Black, and Hispanic students, but had declined further for non-low-income, White, and Asian students. Second, annual public school exit rates remained elevated for elementary students and accelerated further for middle school students. Third, public school exit is sticky and varies by chosen alternative. Only 21 percent of those who left for private schools in fall 2020 had returned by fall 2021, while 50 percent of those who left for homeschooling had returned. These findings suggest that pandemic-driven public school enrollment declines may persist, and more so among higher income families.

Suggested Citation

  • Bacher-Hicks, Andrew & Musaddiq, Tareena & Goodman, Joshua & Stange, Kevin, 2024. "The stickiness of pandemic-driven disenrollment from public schools," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecoedu:v:100:y:2024:i:c:s0272775724000219
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econedurev.2024.102527
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roy, Joydeep & Nguyen-Hoang, Phuong, 2022. "School enrollments during the COVID-19 pandemic: The case of New York," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    2. Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nick & Davis, Steven J., 2020. "Why Working From Home Will Stick," SocArXiv wfdbe, Center for Open Science.
    3. Musaddiq, Tareena & Stange, Kevin & Bacher-Hicks, Andrew & Goodman, Joshua, 2022. "The Pandemic’s effect on demand for public schools, homeschooling, and private schools," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    4. Bacher-Hicks, Andrew & Goodman, Joshua & Mulhern, Christine, 2021. "Inequality in household adaptation to schooling shocks: Covid-induced online learning engagement in real time," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
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    6. Andrew Bacher-Hicks & Joshua Goodman & Jennifer Greif Green & Melissa K. Holt, 2022. "The COVID-19 Pandemic Disrupted Both School Bullying and Cyberbullying," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 353-370, September.
    7. Thomas Dee & Elizabeth Huffaker & Cheryl Phillips & Eric Sagara, 2021. "The Revealed Preferences for School Reopening: Evidence from Public-School Disenrollment," NBER Working Papers 29156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    9. Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nick & Davis, Steven J., 2020. "Why Working From Home Will Stick," SocArXiv wfdbe, Center for Open Science.
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