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Growth, institutions and oil dependence: A buffered threshold panel approach

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  • Belarbi, Yacine
  • Hamdi, Fayçal
  • Khalfi, Abderaouf
  • Souam, Saïd

Abstract

We examine the combined effects of oil dependence and the quality of institutions on economic growth. To do so, we introduce a new buffered threshold panel data model and apply it to 19 oil rent-dependent countries over the period 1996–2017. We show that the relationship between growth and oil-dependence is not linear. More precisely, three categories of oil-dependent countries are identified. Only countries with high-quality institutions are very stable. All the other countries have experienced a transition into a buffer zone and are potentially in a transition between two different regimes. When considering oil dependence as a threshold variable, it appears that the quality of institutions has a positive and significant effect on growth when dependence is either low or high. More interestingly, for countries with intermediate levels of oil-dependence, the quality of the institutions negatively impacts growth. Some of these countries have experienced something of an oil-dependence trap.

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  • Belarbi, Yacine & Hamdi, Fayçal & Khalfi, Abderaouf & Souam, Saïd, 2021. "Growth, institutions and oil dependence: A buffered threshold panel approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:99:y:2021:i:c:s0264999321000584
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2021.02.018
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    4. Kamguia, Brice & Keneck-Massil, Joseph & Nvuh-Njoya, Youssouf & Tadadjeu, Sosson, 2022. "Natural resources and innovation: Is the R&D sector cursed too?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

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