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State-dependent fiscal multipliers in NORA - A DSGE model for fiscal policy analysis in Norway

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  • Aursland, Thor Andreas
  • Frankovic, Ivan
  • Kanik, Birol
  • Saxegaard, Magnus

Abstract

We develop a novel medium-scale DSGE model, called NORA, for fiscal policy analysis in Norway. NORA contains a sheltered and exposed sector allowing us to model wage bargaining between a labor union and the exposed sector, reflecting Scandinavian wage formation institutions. Wages are subject to a downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR). Inspired by many countries' fiscal policy responses to the Great Recession and the coronavirus pandemic, we investigate the model's ability to generate state-dependent fiscal multipliers. We find, that both the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and DNWR individually can account for higher fiscal multipliers during recessions. In joint presence, however, the existence of DNWR reduces the multiplier at the ZLB. Moreover, the DNWR significantly relaxes the paradox of toil at the ZLB. We show that the state-dependency is robust to alternative assumptions about the origin of the recession, the nature of the fiscal stimulus and its financing source.

Suggested Citation

  • Aursland, Thor Andreas & Frankovic, Ivan & Kanik, Birol & Saxegaard, Magnus, 2020. "State-dependent fiscal multipliers in NORA - A DSGE model for fiscal policy analysis in Norway," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 321-353.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:93:y:2020:i:c:p:321-353
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2020.07.017
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Fiscal multiplier; State-dependency; Zero lower bound; Downward nominal wage rigidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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