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Central Bank Policy Paths and Market Forward Rates: A Simple Model

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  • FERRE DE GRAEVE
  • JENS IVERSEN

Abstract

Increasingly many central banks announce likely paths for future policy rates. Recent experience suggests that market forward rates can differ substantially from those announced. Models commonly adopted in policy analysis ignore such differences. This paper studies a simple model that can capture deviations between announced paths and market forward rates. We detail the macroeconomic transmission of such deviations and show how the model can inform policy deliberations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferre De Graeve & Jens Iversen, 2017. "Central Bank Policy Paths and Market Forward Rates: A Simple Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(6), pages 1197-1224, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:49:y:2017:i:6:p:1197-1224
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12413
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    3. Alex Isakov & Petr Grishin & Oleg Gorlinsky, 2018. "Fear of Forward Guidance," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(4), pages 84-106, December.
    4. Aursland, Thor Andreas & Frankovic, Ivan & Kanik, Birol & Saxegaard, Magnus, 2020. "State-dependent fiscal multipliers in NORA - A DSGE model for fiscal policy analysis in Norway," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 321-353.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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