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On the Estimation of Term Structure Models and An Application to the United States

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper discusses the estimation of models of the term structure of interest rates. After reviewing the term structure models, specifically the Nelson-Siegel Model and Affine Term- Structure Model, this paper estimates the terms structure of Treasury bond yields for the United States with pre-crisis data. This paper uses a software developed by Fund staff for this purpose. This software makes it possible to estimate the term structure using at least nine models, while opening up the possibility of generating simulated paths of the term structure.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 2010. "On the Estimation of Term Structure Models and An Application to the United States," IMF Working Papers 2010/258, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/258
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bank for International Settlements, 2005. "Zero-coupon yield curves: technical documentation," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 25.
    2. Michiel De Pooter, 2007. "Examining the Nelson-Siegel Class of Term Structure Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-043/4, Tinbergen Institute.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2016. "The macroeconomic determinants of the US term structure during the Great Moderation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 216-225.
    2. Mr. Rodrigo Cabral & Mr. Richard Munclinger & Mr. Luiz Alves & Mr. Marco Rodriguez Waldo, 2011. "On Brazil’s Term Structure: Stylized Facts and Analysis of Macroeconomic Interactions," IMF Working Papers 2011/113, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mr. Carlos I. Medeiros & Ying He, 2011. "An Assessment of Estimates of Term Structure Models for the United States," IMF Working Papers 2011/247, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "Forecasting the yield curve and the role of macroeconomic information in Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-7.
    5. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski, 2014. "Measuring the natural yield curve," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(17), pages 2052-2065, June.
    6. Oguzhan Cepni & Ibrahim Ethem Guney & Doruk Kucuksarac & Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz, 2018. "The Interaction between Yield Curve and Macroeconomic Factors," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1802, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    7. Hokuto Ishii, 2019. "Forecasting Term Structure of Interest Rates in Japan," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-35, July.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Macrofinance Model of the Czech Economy: Asset Allocation Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2012/078, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Giuseppe Arbia & Michele Di Marcantonio, 2015. "Forecasting Interest Rates Using Geostatistical Techniques," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-28, November.
    10. Xu, Meng & Li, Jialiang & Chen, Ying, 2017. "Varying coefficient functional autoregressive model with application to the U.S. treasuries," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 168-183.

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    WP; descriptive statistics;

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