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Time and place where gold acts as an inflation hedge: An application of long-run and short-run threshold model

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  • Wang, Kuan-Min
  • Lee, Yuan-Ming
  • Thi, Thanh-Binh Nguyen

Abstract

This study examines the short-run and long-run inflation hedging effectiveness of gold in the United States and Japan during the period of January 1971 to January 2010. Previous research has shown in the long-run that inflation tends to appropriately increase the price of gold in the U.S., leading to gold's popularity as an asset in portfolios to reduce the risk against sudden inflation. However, gold is only partially effective in hedging against inflation in Japan. This research found that the rigidity between the price of gold and the consumer price index affects the inflation hedging ability of gold in the long-run. The gold price is characterized by market disequilibrium induced by the price rigidity, causing the price of gold to be unable to response to changes in the CPI. To explore the inflation hedging ability of gold in the short-run, this study further examines the price rigidity in low and high momentum regime. It is found during the low momentum regimes that, gold return is unable to hedge against inflation in either the U.S. or Japan. However, during high momentum regimes, gold return is able to hedge against inflation in the U.S., while the price rigidity in Japan causes the price of gold to not fully hedge against inflation in the short-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Kuan-Min & Lee, Yuan-Ming & Thi, Thanh-Binh Nguyen, 2011. "Time and place where gold acts as an inflation hedge: An application of long-run and short-run threshold model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 806-819, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:3:p:806-819
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