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News and correlations of CEEC-3 financial markets

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  • Büttner, David
  • Hayo, Bernd

Abstract

We employ DCC-MGARCH models to investigate conditional correlations between six CEEC-3 financial markets. In general, the highest correlations exist between Hungary and Poland in foreign exchange and stock markets. Short-term money markets are somewhat isolated from each other. We find that the associations of CEEC-3 exchange rates versus euro are weaker than those versus the US dollar. The persistence of the effect of shocks on the time-varying correlations is strongest for foreign exchange and stock markets, indicating a tendency toward contagion. In searching for the origins of financial market volatility in the CEEC-3, we uncover some evidence of Granger-causality on the foreign exchange markets. Finally, using a pool model, we investigate the impact of euro area, US, and CEEC-3 news on the correlations. Apart from ECB monetary policy news, we observe no broad effects of international news on correlations; instead, local news exerts an influence, which suggests a dominance of country- or market-specific circumstances.

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  • Büttner, David & Hayo, Bernd, 2010. "News and correlations of CEEC-3 financial markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 915-922, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:27:y:2010:i:5:p:915-922
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    7. Lu Yang & Jason Z. Ma & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2018. "Dependence Structures and Systemic Risk of Government Securities Markets in Central and Eastern Europe: A CoVaR-Copula Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, January.
    8. Dua, Pami & Tuteja, Divya, 2016. "Financial crises and dynamic linkages across international stock and currency markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 249-261.
    9. Apergis, Nicholas, 2015. "Newswire messages and sovereign credit ratings: Evidence from European countries under austerity reform programmes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 54-62.
    10. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Phouphet Kyophilavong, 2021. "Nonlinearities and Chaos: A New Analysis of CEE Stock Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-13, March.
    11. Simona Moagăr-Poladian & Dorina Clichici & Cristian-Valeriu Stanciu, 2019. "The Comovement of Exchange Rates and Stock Markets in Central and Eastern Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-22, July.
    12. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Aubin, Christian & Goyeau, Daniel & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "Extreme co-movements and dependencies among major international exchange rates: A copula approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 56-69.
    13. Kliber, Agata & Płuciennik, Piotr, 2017. "Euro or not? Vulnerability of Czech and Slovak economies to regional and international turmoil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 313-323.
    14. Salisu, Afees A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Predicting stock returns in the presence of COVID-19 pandemic: The role of health news," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Ho, Kin-Yip & Shi, Yanlin & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2018. "Public information arrival, price discovery and dynamic correlations in the Chinese renminbi markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 168-186.
    16. Joanna Olbryś & Elżbieta Majewska, 2014. "Implications of market frictions: serial correlations in indexes on the emerging stock markets in Central and Eastern Europe," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 24(1), pages 51-70.
    17. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2017. "Does Financial News Predict Stock Returns? New Evidence from Islamic and Non-Islamic Stocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 24-45.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial markets Czech Republic Hungary Poland Political news Macroeconomic shocks Contagion DCC-MGARCH;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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