IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jrisks/v8y2020i2p55-d365570.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Copula-Based Assessment of Co-Movement and Tail Dependence Structure Among Major Trading Foreign Currencies in Ghana

Author

Listed:
  • Prince Osei Mensah

    (Faculty of IT Business, Ghana Technology University College (Kumasi Campus), Kumasi AK, Ghana)

  • Anokye M. Adam

    (Department of Finance, School of Business, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast CC, Ghana)

Abstract

This paper examines the joint movement and tail dependence structure between the pair of foreign exchange rates (EUR, USD and GBP) against the GHS, using daily exchange rates data expressed in GHS per unit of foreign currencies (EUR, USD and GBP) between the time range of 24 February 2009 and 19 December 2019. We use different sets of both static (time-invariant) and time-varying copulas with different levels of dependence and tail dependence measures, and the study results reveal positive dependence between all exchange rates pairs, though the dependencies for EUR-USD and GBP-USD pairs are not as strong as the EUR-GBP pair. The findings also reveal symmetric tail dependence, and dependence evolves over time. Notwithstanding this, the asymmetric tail dependence copulas provide evidence of upper tail dependence. We compare the copula results to DCC(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model result and find the copula to be more sensitive to extreme co-movement between the currency pairs. The afore-mentioned findings, therefore, offer forex market players the opportunity to relax in hoarding a particular foreign currency in anticipation of domestic currency depreciation.

Suggested Citation

  • Prince Osei Mensah & Anokye M. Adam, 2020. "Copula-Based Assessment of Co-Movement and Tail Dependence Structure Among Major Trading Foreign Currencies in Ghana," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-20, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:8:y:2020:i:2:p:55-:d:365570
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/8/2/55/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/8/2/55/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lu Yang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2013. "Dependence structure among international stock markets: a GARCH--copula analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(23), pages 1805-1817, December.
    2. Chkili, Walid & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Exchange rate movements and stock market returns in a regime-switching environment: Evidence for BRICS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 46-56.
    3. Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1990. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 525-542, May.
    4. Brooks, Robin & Del Negro, Marco, 2004. "The rise in comovement across national stock markets: market integration or IT bubble?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 659-680, December.
    5. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Aubin, Christian & Goyeau, Daniel & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "Extreme co-movements and dependencies among major international exchange rates: A copula approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 56-69.
    6. Lee, Jim, 2006. "The comovement between output and prices: Evidence from a dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 110-116, April.
    7. Boubaker Heni & Boutahar Mohamed, 2011. "A wavelet-based approach for modelling exchange rates," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 20(2), pages 201-220, June.
    8. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
    9. John Beirne & Jana Gieck, 2014. "Interdependence and Contagion in Global Asset Markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 639-659, September.
    10. Dua, Pami & Tuteja, Divya, 2016. "Financial crises and dynamic linkages across international stock and currency markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 249-261.
    11. Karolyi, G Andrew & Stulz, Rene M, 1996. "Why Do Markets Move Together? An Investigation of U.S.-Japan Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 951-986, July.
    12. Wu, Ming-Chya, 2007. "Phase correlation of foreign exchange time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 375(2), pages 633-642.
    13. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi, 2013. "Cross-correlations between Renminbi and four major currencies in the Renminbi currency basket," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(6), pages 1418-1428.
    14. Garcia, René & Tsafack, Georges, 2011. "Dependence structure and extreme comovements in international equity and bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1954-1970, August.
    15. Dimitriou, Dimitrios & Kenourgios, Dimitris, 2013. "Financial crises and dynamic linkages among international currencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 319-332.
    16. Büttner, David & Hayo, Bernd, 2010. "News and correlations of CEEC-3 financial markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 915-922, September.
    17. Wang, Yi-Chiuan & Wu, Jyh-Lin & Lai, Yi-Hao, 2013. "A revisit to the dependence structure between the stock and foreign exchange markets: A dependence-switching copula approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1706-1719.
    18. Engle, Robert & Colacito, Riccardo, 2006. "Testing and Valuing Dynamic Correlations for Asset Allocation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 238-253, April.
    19. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    20. Satish Kumar & Rajesh Pathak & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Seong-Min Yoon, 2017. "Are exchange rates interdependent? Evidence using wavelet analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(33), pages 3231-3245, July.
    21. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    22. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    23. Yang, Lu & Cai, Xiao Jing & Li, Mengling & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2015. "Modeling dependence structures among international stock markets: Evidence from hierarchical Archimedean copulas," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 308-314.
    24. Coudert, Virginie & Gex, Mathieu, 2010. "Contagion inside the credit default swaps market: The case of the GM and Ford crisis in 2005," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 109-134, April.
    25. Jiang, J. & Ma, K. & Cai, X., 2007. "Scaling and correlations in foreign exchange market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 375(1), pages 274-280.
    26. Wu, Chih-Chiang & Chung, Huimin & Chang, Yu-Hsien, 2012. "The economic value of co-movement between oil price and exchange rate using copula-based GARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 270-282.
    27. Xiao Jing Cai & Shuairu Tian & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2016. "Dynamic correlation and equicorrelation analysis of global financial turmoil: evidence from emerging East Asian stock markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(40), pages 3789-3803, August.
    28. Pal, Mayukha & Madhusudana Rao, P. & Manimaran, P., 2014. "Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis on gold, crude oil and foreign exchange rate time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 416(C), pages 452-460.
    29. Antonakakis, Nikolaos, 2012. "Exchange return co-movements and volatility spillovers before and after the introduction of euro," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1091-1109.
    30. Dias, Alexandra & Embrechts, Paul, 2010. "Modeling exchange rate dependence dynamics at different time horizons," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1687-1705, December.
    31. Apostolakis, George & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2015. "Financial stress spillovers across the banking, securities and foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 1-21.
    32. Tamakoshi, Go & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2014. "Co-movements among major European exchange rates: A multivariate time-varying asymmetric approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 105-113.
    33. Ling Hu, 2006. "Dependence patterns across financial markets: a mixed copula approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 717-729.
    34. Peterson Owusu Junior & George Tweneboah & Anokye M. Adam, 2019. "Interdependence of Major Exchange Rates in Ghana: A Wavelet Coherence Analysis," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 407-430, July.
    35. Tse, Y K & Tsui, Albert K C, 2002. "A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 351-362, July.
    36. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 2007. "Market integration and contagion: Evidence from Asian emerging stock and foreign exchange markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 264-283, December.
    37. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2012:i:080 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paul R. Dewick & Shuangzhe Liu, 2022. "Copula Modelling to Analyse Financial Data," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-11, February.
    2. Jin Shang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2023. "Differential Tail Dependence between Crude Oil and Forex Markets in Oil-Importing and Oil-Exporting Countries during Recent Crisis Periods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-24, October.
    3. Bukre Yildirim Kulekci & Gulden Poyraz & Ismail Gur & Ozan Evkaya, 2023. "Dependence Analysis of the ISE100 Banking Sector Using Vine Copula," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 73(73-1), pages 55-81, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Aubin, Christian & Goyeau, Daniel & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "Extreme co-movements and dependencies among major international exchange rates: A copula approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 56-69.
    2. Simona Moagăr-Poladian & Dorina Clichici & Cristian-Valeriu Stanciu, 2019. "The Comovement of Exchange Rates and Stock Markets in Central and Eastern Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-22, July.
    3. Sehgal, Sanjay & Pandey, Piyush & Diesting, Florent, 2017. "Examining dynamic currency linkages amongst South Asian economies: An empirical study," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 173-190.
    4. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2021. "The impact of Euro through time: Exchange rate dynamics under different regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1375-1408, January.
    5. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2015. "Volatility returns with vengeance: Financial markets vs. commodities," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 334-354.
    6. Meng, Xiangcai & Huang, Chia-Hsing, 2019. "The time-frequency co-movement of Asian effective exchange rates: A wavelet approach with daily data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 131-148.
    7. Boakye, Robert Owusu & Mensah, Lord Kwaku & Kang, Sang Hoon & Osei, Kofi Acheampong, 2023. "Foreign exchange market return spillovers and connectedness among African countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    8. Ruili Sun & Tiefeng Ma & Shuangzhe Liu & Milind Sathye, 2019. "Improved Covariance Matrix Estimation for Portfolio Risk Measurement: A Review," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-34, March.
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13359 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Mensah, Jones Odei & Premaratne, Gamini, 2014. "Dependence patterns among Banking Sectors in Asia: A Copula Approach," MPRA Paper 60119, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Das, Suman & Roy, Saikat Sinha, 2023. "Following the leaders? A study of co-movement and volatility spillover in BRICS currencies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    12. Yudong Wang & Chongfeng Wu & Li Yang, 2015. "Hedging with Futures: Does Anything Beat the Naïve Hedging Strategy?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(12), pages 2870-2889, December.
    13. Saker Sabkha & Christian de Peretti, 2018. "On the performances of Dynamic Conditional Correlation models in the Sovereign CDS market and the corresponding bond market," Working Papers hal-01710398, HAL.
    14. Bhatia, Shipra & Tuteja, Divya, 2024. "Contagion and linkages across international currencies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    15. Abuzayed, Bana & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Bouri, Elie, 2020. "Co-movement across european stock and real estate markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 189-208.
    16. Saker Sabkha & Christian de Peretti, 2022. "On the performances of Dynamic Conditional Correlation models in the Sovereign CDS market and the corresponding bond market," Post-Print hal-01710398, HAL.
    17. Linyu Cao & Ruili Sun & Tiefeng Ma & Conan Liu, 2023. "On Asymmetric Correlations and Their Applications in Financial Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-18, March.
    18. Saba Qureshi & Muhammad Aftab, 2023. "Exchange Rate Interdependence in ASEAN Markets: A Wavelet Analysis," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 24(6), pages 1180-1204, December.
    19. Otranto, Edoardo, 2010. "Identifying financial time series with similar dynamic conditional correlation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 1-15, January.
    20. Sofiane Aboura & Julien Chevallier, 2014. "Cross‐market spillovers with ‘volatility surprise’," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 194-207, November.
    21. Martin Hoesli & Kustrim Reka, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers, Comovements and Contagion in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-35, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:8:y:2020:i:2:p:55-:d:365570. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.