IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cii/cepiei/2005-3td.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

La propagation des crises financieres dans les pays emergents : la contagion est-elle discriminante ?

Author

Listed:
  • Sophie Brana
  • Delphine Lahet

Abstract

L’objectif de l’article est d’analyser le comportement des investisseurs a l’egard du risque pays en tant que declencheur des crises financieres et facteur de contagion a l’occasion de la crise asiatique. La contagion a-t-elle touche des pays proches sur le plan des fondamentaux (contagion discriminante), au-dela des canaux traditionnels de transmission des chocs, ou a-t-elle frappe des pays sans discernement en raison d’un mouvement de defiance generalise (contagion pure) ? Les resultats des tests econometriques realises sur un echantillon de pays emergents de 1994 à 2004 montrent que la crise thailandaise a bien provoque un changement de comportement de la part des investisseurs, que l’on peut assimiler a de la contagion pure.

Suggested Citation

  • Sophie Brana & Delphine Lahet, 2005. "La propagation des crises financieres dans les pays emergents : la contagion est-elle discriminante ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 103, pages 73-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2005-3td
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/IE/rev103/rev103d.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "Contagious speculative attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 45-63, March.
    3. Nagayasu, Jun, 2001. "Currency crisis and contagion: evidence from exchange rates and sectoral stock indices of the Philippines and Thailand," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 529-546.
    4. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1999. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-3.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    6. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2001. "Bank Lending and Contagion: Evidence from the Asian Crisis," NBER Chapters, in: Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, pages 73-99, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    9. Pavan Ahluwalia, 2000. "Discriminating Contagion: An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2000/014, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Masson, Paul, 1999. "Contagion:: macroeconomic models with multiple equilibria," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 587-602, August.
    11. Garry J. Schinasi & R. Todd Smith, 2000. "Portfolio Diversification, Leverage, and Financial Contagion," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 1-1.
    12. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    13. Mr. Ranil M Salgado & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Mr. Francesco Caramazza, 2000. "Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 2000/055, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    15. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Roberto Rigobón & Kristin Forbes, 2001. "Contagion in Latin America: Definitions, Measurement, and Policy Implications," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-46, January.
    17. Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "Contagion: How to Measure It?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 269-334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "Paper tigers?: A model of the Asian crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1211-1236, June.
    19. Sander, Harald & Kleimeier, Stefanie, 2003. "Contagion and causality: an empirical investigation of four Asian crisis episodes," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 171-186, April.
    20. Hernandez, Leonardo F. & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 2001. "What drives contagion: Trade, neighborhood, or financial links?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 203-218.
    21. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    22. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2005. "'Some contagion, some interdependence': More pitfalls in tests of financial contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1177-1199, December.
    23. Mr. Paul R Masson, 1998. "Contagion: Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria," IMF Working Papers 1998/142, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
    25. André Cartapanis & Vincent Dropsy & Sophie Mametz, 2002. "The Asian Currency Crises: Vulnerability, Contagion, or Unsustainability," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 79-91, February.
    26. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    27. Mr. Ilan Goldfajn & Mr. Rodrigo O. Valdes, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises: The Role of Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 1997/087, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Baur, Dirk, 2003. "Testing for contagion--mean and volatility contagion," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 405-422, December.
    29. Steven B. Kamin & Karsten von Kleist, 1999. "The evolution and determinants of emerging market credit spreads in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 653, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    30. repec:bla:intfin:v:2:y:1999:i:2:p:273-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Sy, Amadou N. R., 2002. "Emerging market bond spreads and sovereign credit ratings: reconciling market views with economic fundamentals," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 380-408, December.
    32. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel & Tille, Cedric, 2000. "Competitive devaluations: toward a welfare-based approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 217-241, June.
    33. Billio, Monica & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2003. "Contagion and interdependence in stock markets: Have they been misdiagnosed?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(5-6), pages 405-426.
    34. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 2004. "Can bank be a source of contagion during the 1997 Asian crisis?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 399-421, February.
    35. Helmut Reisen & Julia Von Maltzan, 1999. "Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 273-293, July.
    36. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2001. "Sources of contagion: is it finance or trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 293-308, August.
    37. Caramazza, Francesco & Ricci, Luca & Salgado, Ranil, 2004. "International financial contagion in currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 51-70, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yudhistira, Bintang, 2018. "The Effects of Financial Crises on Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 91883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Brana, Sophie & Lahet, Delphine, 2009. "Les déterminants des entrées de capitaux en Asie : quel rôle pour les stratégies de carry trade?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 85(3), pages 283-302, septembre.
    3. Delphine Lahet, 2009. "Le repositionnement des pays émergents : de la crise financière asiatique de 1997 à la crise de 2008," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 95(2), pages 275-306.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel‐Cristian Voia, 2019. "Empirics of currency crises: A duration analysis approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 428-449, July.
    2. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
    3. Mardi Dungey & Rene Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2006. "Correlation, Contagion, and Asian Evidence," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(2), pages 32-72, Spring/Su.
    4. Andres Kuusk & Tiiu Paas, 2010. "Contagion Of Financial Crises With Special Emphasis On Cee Economies: A Metaanalysis," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 66, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    5. MARAIS Elise, 2004. "La contagion financi`ere : une ´etude empirique sur les causalités lors de la crise asiatique," International Finance 0404003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    7. Elise MARAIS, 2007. "Mécanismes De Propag Ation Régionale De La Crise Boursière Asiatique," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 26, pages 13-33.
    8. Lizarazo, Sandra Valentina, 2013. "Default risk and risk averse international investors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 317-330.
    9. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
    10. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    11. Komulainen, Tuomas, 2001. "Currency crises in emerging markets: Capital flows and herding behaviour," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    12. Haile, Fasika & Pozo, Susan, 2008. "Currency crisis contagion and the identification of transmission channels," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 572-588, October.
    13. Marais, E. & Bates, S., 2006. "An empirical study to identify shift contagion during the Asian crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 468-479, December.
    14. Komulainen, Tuomas, 2001. "Currency crises in emerging markets : Capital flows and herding behaviour," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    15. Wajih Khallouli & Rene Sandretto, 2011. "Testing for “Contagion” of the Subprime Crisis on the Middle East And North African Stock Markets: A Markov Switching EGARCH Approach," Working Papers 609, Economic Research Forum, revised 08 Jan 2011.
    16. Eric Santor, 2003. "Banking Crises and Contagion: Empirical Evidence," Staff Working Papers 03-1, Bank of Canada.
    17. repec:zbw:bofitp:2001_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Marek Dabrowski, 2002. "Currency Crises in Emerging - Market Economis: Causes, Consequences and Policy Lessons," CASE Network Reports 0051, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    19. repec:dau:papers:123456789/272 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Bayoumi, Tamim & Fazio, Giorgio & Kumar, Manmohan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2007. "Fatal attraction: Using distance to measure contagion in good times as well as bad," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 259-273.
    21. Taylor, Mark & Mody, Ashoka, 2003. "Common Vulnerabilities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Michael Chui & Simon Hall & Ashley Taylor, 2004. "Crisis spillovers in emerging market economies: interlinkages, vulnerabilities and investor behaviour," Bank of England working papers 212, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contagion financiere; crise asiatique; contagion pure/discriminante; spread; rating;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2005-3td. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepiifr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.