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A Markov switching analysis of contagion in the EMS

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  • Mandilaras, Alex
  • Bird, Graham

Abstract

This paper applies the multivariate version of the Forbes and Rigobon (2002) contagion test, as proposed by Dungey et al. (2005a), to detect contagion effects in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS). Crisis and non-crisis observations are determined endogenously via a Markov-switching vector autoregression (MSVAR). We show that the MSVAR is suitable for this purpose, as it does particularly well in identifying the 11 realignments of the ERM. We examine whether Denmark's rejection of the Maastricht Treaty and Italy's competitiveness problems affected other EMS participants and find evidence for contagion.

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  • Mandilaras, Alex & Bird, Graham, 2010. "A Markov switching analysis of contagion in the EMS," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1062-1075, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:6:p:1062-1075
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    6. Gustav A. Horn & Fabian Lindner & Torsten Niechoj, 2011. "Schuldenschnitt für Griechenland - ein gefährlicher Irrweg für den Euroraum," IMK Report 63-2011, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
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