IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v141y2024ics0264999324002876.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of central bank digital currency on macroeconomic dynamics: A DSGE analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Xiang, Lijin
  • Feng, Chao
  • Xiao, Zumian
  • Liu, Jianjian

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) on macroeconomic fluctuations under various external shocks, expanding the research on macroeconomic effects of CBDC issuance. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to examine the effects of different external shocks on the macroeconomy under three scenarios with varying CBDC rules. Our analysis reveals that, in the presence of CBDC, macroeconomic variables are generally more volatile after exogenous shocks than in the absence of CBDC, while highlighting the crucial role of monetary policy in stabilizing the macroeconomy. Liquidity and substitution effects are identified as main drivers of the results. These findings offer new insights into the welfare improving effect of interest-bearing CBDC, carrying significant implications for the effective implementation of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiang, Lijin & Feng, Chao & Xiao, Zumian & Liu, Jianjian, 2024. "The impact of central bank digital currency on macroeconomic dynamics: A DSGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:141:y:2024:i:c:s0264999324002876
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106930
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999324002876
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106930?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luu, Hiep Ngoc & Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2023. "Implications of central bank digital currency for financial stability: Evidence from the global banking sector," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    2. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2016. "Understanding the Gains from Wage Flexibility: The Exchange Rate Connection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(12), pages 3829-3868, December.
    3. Todd Keister & Cyril Monnet, 2022. "Central Bank Digital Currency: Stability and Information," Working Papers 22-04, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    4. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    5. Williamson, Stephen D., 2022. "Central bank digital currency and flight to safety," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    6. Jess Cheng & Angela Lawson & Paul Wong, 2021. "Preconditions for a General-Purpose Central Bank Digital Currency," FEDS Notes 2021-02-24-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Schilling, Linda & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Uhlig, Harald, 2024. "Central bank digital currency: When price and bank stability collide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Lin William Cong & Zhiguo He & Jiasun Li & Wei Jiang, 2021. "Decentralized Mining in Centralized Pools [Concentrating on the fall of the labor share]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 1191-1235.
    9. Ferry Syarifuddin & Toni Bakhtiar, 2022. "The Macroeconomic Effects of an Interest-Bearing CBDC: A DSGE Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-33, May.
    10. Guizhou Wang & Kjell Hausken, 2022. "A game between central banks and households involving central bank digital currencies, other digital currencies and negative interest rates," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 2114178-211, December.
    11. Davoodalhosseini, Seyed Mohammadreza, 2022. "Central bank digital currency and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    12. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Niepelt, Dirk, 2019. "On the equivalence of private and public money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 27-41.
    13. Morgan, Jamie, 2022. "Systemic stablecoin and the defensive case for Central Bank Digital Currency: A critique of the Bank of England’s framing," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mehl, Arnaud & Stracca, Livio, 2022. "Central bank digital currency in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 54-68.
    15. Morten Linnemann Bech & Jenny Hancock & Tara Rice & Amber Wadsworth, 2020. "On the future of securities settlement," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    16. Mark Gertler & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2015. "Banking, Liquidity, and Bank Runs in an Infinite Horizon Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(7), pages 2011-2043, July.
    17. Eun Young Oh & Shuonan Zhang, 2022. "Informal economy and central bank digital currency," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1520-1539, October.
    18. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    19. Lorenzo Burlon & Manuel A. Muñoz & Frank Smets, 2024. "The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 172-217, October.
    20. Kitano, Shigeto & Takaku, Kenya, 2020. "Capital controls, macroprudential regulation, and the bank balance sheet channel," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    21. Todd Keister & Daniel Sanches, 2023. "Should Central Banks Issue Digital Currency?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(1), pages 404-431.
    22. David Andolfatto, 2021. "Assessing the Impact of Central Bank Digital Currency on Private Banks," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(634), pages 525-540.
    23. Chen, Hongyi & Siklos, Pierre L., 2022. "Central bank digital currency: A review and some macro-financial implications," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    24. Young Sik Kim & Ohik Kwon, 2019. "Central Bank Digital Currency and Financial Stability," Working Papers 2019-6, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    25. Ulrich Bindseil, 2019. "Central Bank Digital Currency: Financial System Implications and Control," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(4), pages 303-335, October.
    26. repec:ecb:ecbdps:202220 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Keister, Todd & Monnet, Cyril, 2022. "Central bank digital currency: Stability and information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    28. Fang, Mingyue & Nie, Huihua & Shen, Xinyi, 2023. "Can enterprise digitization improve ESG performance?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    29. Morten Linnemann Bech & Rodney Garratt, 2017. "Central bank cryptocurrencies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    30. Toni Ahner & Katrin Assenmacher & Peter Hoffmann & Agnese Leonello & Cyril Monnet & Davide Porcellacchia, 2024. "The Economics of Central Bank Digital Currency," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(4), pages 221-274, October.
    31. Barrdear, John & Kumhof, Michael, 2022. "The macroeconomics of central bank digital currencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    32. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    33. A. Stevens, 2017. "Digital currencies : Threats and opportunities for monetary policy," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 79-92, June.
    34. Jonathan Chiu & Seyed Mohammadreza Davoodalhosseini & Janet Jiang & Yu Zhu, 2023. "Bank Market Power and Central Bank Digital Currency: Theory and Quantitative Assessment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(5), pages 1213-1248.
    35. Jack Meaning & Ben Dyson & James Barker & Emily Clayton, 2021. "Broadening Narrow Money: Monetary Policy with a Central Bank Digital Currency," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 1-42, June.
    36. Young Sik Kim & Ohik Kwon, 2023. "Central Bank Digital Currency, Credit Supply, and Financial Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(1), pages 297-321, February.
    37. Jiaqi Li & Andrew Usher & Yu Zhu, 2024. "Central Bank Digital Currency and Banking Choices," Staff Working Papers 24-4, Bank of Canada.
    38. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung, 2023. "Systematic monetary policy in a SVAR for Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    39. Stephen Williamson, 2022. "Central Bank Digital Currency: Welfare and Policy Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(11), pages 2829-2861.
    40. Tobias Adrian & Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli, 2021. "The Rise of Digital Money," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 57-77, November.
    41. David Kuo Chuen Lee & Li Yan & Yu Wang, 2021. "A global perspective on central bank digital currency," China Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 52-66, January.
    42. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Duffy, David & Filis, George, 2013. "Stock market response to monetary and fiscal policy shocks: Multi-country evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 754-769.
    43. Guo, Bingnan & Wang, Yu & Zhang, Hao & Liang, Chunyan & Feng, Yu & Hu, Feng, 2023. "Impact of the digital economy on high-quality urban economic development: Evidence from Chinese cities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    44. James Chapman & Jonathan Chiu & Mohammad Davoodalhosseini & Janet Hua Jiang & Francisco Rivadeneyra & Yu Zhu, 2023. "Central Bank Digital Currencies and Banking: Literature Review and New Questions," Discussion Papers 2023-4, Bank of Canada.
    45. Li, Jiaqi, 2023. "Predicting the demand for central bank digital currency: A structural analysis with survey data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 73-85.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dionysopoulos, Lambis & Marra, Miriam & Urquhart, Andrew, 2024. "Central bank digital currencies: A critical review," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Lorenzo Burlon & Manuel A. Muñoz & Frank Smets, 2024. "The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 172-217, October.
    3. Nocciola, Luca & Zamora-Pérez, Alejandro, 2024. "Transactional demand for central bank digital currency," Working Paper Series 2926, European Central Bank.
    4. Lü, Zheng & Ozcelebi, Oguzhan & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2025. "Impact of central bank digital currency uncertainty on international financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA).
    5. Grodecka-Messi, Anna & Zhang, Xin, 2023. "Private bank money vs central bank money: A historical lesson for CBDC introduction," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    6. Dirk Niepelt, 2024. "Money and Banking with Reserves and CBDC," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2505-2552, August.
    7. Son, Jaemin & Ryu, Doojin & Webb, Robert I., 2023. "Central bank digital currency: Payment choices and commercial bank profitability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. Luu, Hiep Ngoc & Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2023. "Implications of central bank digital currency for financial stability: Evidence from the global banking sector," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    9. Assenmacher, Katrin & Bitter, Lea & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "CBDC and business cycle dynamics in a New Monetarist New Keynesian model," Working Paper Series 2811, European Central Bank.
    10. Xin, Baogui & Jiang, Kai, 2023. "Central bank digital currency and the effectiveness of negative interest rate policy: A DSGE analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. M'bakob, Gilles Brice & Tchounga, Anatole, 2024. "CBDC and banking stability: Modeling cascading effects on reserves, lending, and liquidity," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(4).
    12. Mishra, Bineet & Prasad, Eswar, 2024. "A simple model of a central bank digital currency," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    13. Moro, Alessandro & Nispi Landi, Valerio, 2024. "The external financial spillovers of CBDCs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    14. Sebastian Infante & Kyungmin Kim & Anna Orlik & André F. Silva & Robert J. Tetlow, 2022. "The Macroeconomic Implications of CBDC: A Review of the Literature," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-076, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Xin, Baogui & Jiang, Kai & Santibanez Gonzalez, Ernesto D.R., 2024. "The coevolution effect of central bank digital currency and green bonds on the net-zero economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    16. Vollmar, Steffen & Wening, Fabian, 2024. "The impact of CBDC on a deposit-dependent banking system," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    17. Sofia Priazhkina & Samuel Palmer & Pablo Martín-Ramiro & Román Orús & Samuel Mugel & Vladimir Skavysh, 2024. "Digital Payments in Firm Networks: Theory of Adoption and Quantum Algorithm," Staff Working Papers 24-17, Bank of Canada.
    18. Agur, Itai & Ari, Anil & Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni, 2022. "Designing central bank digital currencies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 62-79.
    19. Muñoz, Manuel A. & Soons, Oscar, 2023. "Public money as a store of value, heterogeneous beliefs, and banks: implications of CBDC," Working Paper Series 2801, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank digital currency; Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium; Economic fluctuations; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:141:y:2024:i:c:s0264999324002876. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.