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Bank Market Power and Central Bank Digital Currency: Theory and Quantitative Assessment

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  • Jonathan Chiu
  • Seyed Mohammadreza Davoodalhosseini
  • Janet Jiang
  • Yu Zhu

Abstract

This paper develops a micro-founded general equilibrium model of payments to study the impact of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) on intermediation of private banks. If banks have market power in the deposit market, a CBDC can enhance competition, raising the deposit rate, expanding intermediation, and increasing output. A calibration to the US economy suggests that a CBDC can raise bank lending by 1.57% and output by 0.19%. These crowding-in effects remain robust, albeit with smaller magnitudes, after taking into account endogenous bank entry. We also assess the role of a non-interest-bearing CBDC as the use of cash declines.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Chiu & Seyed Mohammadreza Davoodalhosseini & Janet Jiang & Yu Zhu, 2023. "Bank Market Power and Central Bank Digital Currency: Theory and Quantitative Assessment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(5), pages 1213-1248.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/722517
    DOI: 10.1086/722517
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ozili, Peterson Kitakogelu, 2024. "Central bank digital currency and the monetary policy and financial stability implications," MPRA Paper 120146, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jonathan Chiu & Cyril Monnet, 2024. "Public and Private Money Creation for Distributed Ledgers: Stablecoins, Tokenized Deposits, or Central Bank Digital Currencies?," Staff Working Papers 24-35, Bank of Canada.
    3. Nicola Amendola & Luis Araujo & Leo Ferraris, 2024. "Physical vs Digital Currency: What's the Difference, Why it Matters," Working Papers 537, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    4. Sofia Priazhkina & Samuel Palmer & Pablo Martín-Ramiro & Román Orús & Samuel Mugel & Vladimir Skavysh, 2024. "Digital Payments in Firm Networks: Theory of Adoption and Quantum Algorithm," Staff Working Papers 24-17, Bank of Canada.
    5. Bindseil, Ulrich & Senner, Richard, 2024. "Macroeconomic modelling of CBDC: a critical review," Working Paper Series 2978, European Central Bank.
    6. Yuan, Luo & Su, Chang & Fang, Bo & Meng, Yunfan & Wang, Xinyang & Gao, Wenyou, 2023. "The optimization of digital currency electronic payment in RMB based on big data and fuzzy theory," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123657, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Assenmacher, Katrin & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mehl, Arnaud & Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2024. "Managing the transition to central bank digital currency," Working Paper Series 2907, European Central Bank.
    8. Rhys Bidder & Timothy Jackson & Matthias Rottner, 2024. "CBDC and Banks: Disintermediating Fast and Slow," Working Papers 202407, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    9. Dong, Mei & Xiao, Sylvia Xiaolin, 2024. "Idle liquidity, CBDC and banking," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    10. Altermatt, Lukas & Wang, Zijian, 2024. "Oligopoly banking, risky investment, and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    11. Sebastian Infante & Kyungmin Kim & Anna Orlik & André F. Silva & Robert J. Tetlow, 2023. "Retail Central Bank Digital Currencies: Implications for Banking and Financial Stability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-072, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Harald Uhlig, 2023. "Review Article: Eswar S. Prasad: How the Digital Revolution is Transforming Currencies and Finance," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 58(4), pages 201-204, October.
    13. Son, Jaemin & Ryu, Doojin & Webb, Robert I., 2023. "Central bank digital currency: Payment choices and commercial bank profitability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    14. Francesca Carapella & Jin-Wook Chang & Sebastian Infante & Melissa Leistra & Arazi Lubis & Alexandros Vardoulakis, 2024. "Financial Stability Implications of CBDC," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-021, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Carletti, Elena & Leonello, Agnese & Marquez, Robert, 2024. "Market power in banking," Working Paper Series 2886, European Central Bank.
    16. James A. Clouse, 2024. "A Field Guide to Monetary Policy Implementation Issues in a New World with CBDC, Stablecoin, and Narrow Banks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-001, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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