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Predicting the Demand for Central Bank Digital Currency: A Structural Analysis with Survey Data

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  • Jiaqi Li

Abstract

This paper predicts households’ demand for central bank digital currency (CBDC) with different design attributes by applying a structural demand model to a unique Canadian survey dataset. CBDC and its close alternatives, cash and demand deposits, are viewed as product bundles of different attributes. I estimate households’ preferences towards these attributes from how they allocate their liquid assets between cash and demand deposits. The estimated preferences are used to predict the demand for CBDC with a set of design attributes and quantify the impacts of CBDC design choices on CBDC demand. Under a baseline design for CBDC, the aggregate CBDC holdings out of households’ liquid assets could range from 4 to 52%, depending on whether households would perceive CBDC to be closer to cash or deposits. I find that important design attributes include budgeting usefulness, anonymity, bundling of bank services, and rate of return.

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  • Jiaqi Li, 2021. "Predicting the Demand for Central Bank Digital Currency: A Structural Analysis with Survey Data," Staff Working Papers 21-65, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:21-65
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    3. Grodecka-Messi, Anna & Zhang, Xin, 2023. "Private bank money vs central bank money: A historical lesson for CBDC introduction," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    4. Xing Guo & Pablo Ottonello & Diego J. Perez, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Redistribution in Open Economies," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 191-241.
    5. Caccia, Enea & Tapking, Jens & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2024. "Central bank digital currency and monetary policy implementation," Occasional Paper Series 345, European Central Bank.
    6. Charles M. Kahn & Maarten R.C. van Oordt, 2022. "The Demand for Programmable Payments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-076/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Medina Ayta Mohammed & Carmen De-Pablos-Heredero & José Luis Montes Botella, 2023. "Exploring the Factors Affecting Countries’ Adoption of Blockchain-Enabled Central Bank Digital Currencies," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-14, September.
    8. Svetlana Abramova & Rainer Böhme & Helmut Elsinger & Helmut Stix & Martin Summer, 2022. "What can CBDC designers learn from asking potential users? Results from a survey of Austrian residents (Svetlana Abramova, Rainer Böhme, Helmut Elsinger, Helmut Stix, Martin Summer)," Working Papers 241, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    9. Assenmacher, Katrin & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mehl, Arnaud & Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2024. "Managing the transition to central bank digital currency," Working Paper Series 2907, European Central Bank.
    10. Azzone, Michele & Barucci, Emilio, 2023. "Evaluation of sight deposits and central bank digital currency," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    11. Son, Jaemin & Ryu, Doojin & Webb, Robert I., 2023. "Central bank digital currency: Payment choices and commercial bank profitability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    12. Rhys Bidder & Timothy Jackson & Matthias Rottner, 2024. "CBDC and Banks: Disintermediating Fast and Slow," Working Papers 202407, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    13. Michael Lloyd, 2022. "The Future of Money: Central Bank Digital Currencies," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 50(3), pages 85-98, December.
    14. Alberto Di Iorio & Anneke Kosse & Ilaria Mattei, 2024. "Embracing diversity, advancing together - results of the 2023 BIS survey on central bank digital currencies and crypto," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 147.
    15. Lambert, Claudia & Larkou, Chloe & Pancaro, Cosimo & Pellicani, Antonella & Sintonen, Meri, 2024. "Digital euro demand: design, individuals’ payment preferences and socioeconomic factors," Working Paper Series 2980, European Central Bank.
    16. Charles M. Kahn & Maarten van Oordt & Yu Zhu, 2021. "Best Before? Expiring Central Bank Digital Currency and Loss Recovery," Staff Working Papers 21-67, Bank of Canada.
    17. Mishra, Bineet & Prasad, Eswar, 2024. "A simple model of a central bank digital currency," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    18. Sebastian Infante & Kyungmin Kim & Anna Orlik & André F. Silva & Robert J. Tetlow, 2023. "Retail Central Bank Digital Currencies: Implications for Banking and Financial Stability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-072, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Michiel Bijlsma & Carin Cruijsen & Nicole Jonker & Jelmer Reijerink, 2024. "What Triggers Consumer Adoption of Central Bank Digital Currency?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 1-40, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank research; Digital currencies and fintech;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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