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The post-COVID inflation episode

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  • Aguirre, Idoia
  • Casares, Miguel

Abstract

This study examined the recent inflation episode in the US using an estimated NK-DSGE model with endogenous unemployment fluctuations. We find that the US price inflation accelerated due to a sudden wage increase during the COVID-19 lockdown, the 2021 expansionary monetary policy, and price-push shocks in the quarters of a global surge in energy costs. The disinflation path predicts that further indexing prices or wages to lagged inflation will lead to higher wage inflation and slower price disinflation. Moreover, severely tightening the Fed’s monetary policy will only slightly reduce inflation but increase unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Aguirre, Idoia & Casares, Miguel, 2024. "The post-COVID inflation episode," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:139:y:2024:i:c:s0264999324001810
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106824
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    Cited by:

    1. António Afonso & José Alves & João Jalles & Sofia Monteiro, 2024. "Inflation Tales: The Heterogenous Price Effects from Current Account Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 11512, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; New Keynesian; Indexation; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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