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Supply Bottlenecks: Where, Why, How Much, and What Next?

Author

Listed:
  • Oya Celasun
  • Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen
  • Ms. Aiko Mineshima
  • Mariano Spector
  • Jing Zhou

Abstract

Supply constraints hurt the economic recovery and boosted inflation in 2021. We find that in the euro area, manufacturing output and GDP would have been about 6 and 2 percent higher, respectively, and half of the rise in manufacturing producer price inflation would not have occurred in the absence of supply bottlenecks. Globally, shutdowns can explain up to 40 percent of the supply shocks. Sectors that are more reliant on differentiated inputs—such as autos—are harder hit. Late last year industry experts expected supply shortages for autos to largely dissipate by mid-2022 and broader bottlenecks by end-2022, but given the Omicron wave, disruptions will last for longer, possibly into 2023. With supply constraints adding to price pressures, the challenge for policymakers is to support recovery without allowing high inflation to become entrenched.

Suggested Citation

  • Oya Celasun & Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen & Ms. Aiko Mineshima & Mariano Spector & Jing Zhou, 2022. "Supply Bottlenecks: Where, Why, How Much, and What Next?," IMF Working Papers 2022/031, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/031
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Salzmann, Leonard, 2024. "Do Survey Data Help Identify Supply and Demand Shocks in Sign-restricted SVARs?," EconStor Preprints 289576, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Paula Bejarano Carbo, 2024. "The Nature of the Inflationary Surprise in Europe and the USA," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 554, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    3. repec:ocp:rpcoen:pb_18-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Stamer, Vincent, 2022. "Thinking Outside the Container: A Sparse Partial Least Squares Approach to Forecasting Trade Flows," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264096, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Daragh Clancy & Donal Smith & Vilém Valenta, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Global Supply Chain Reorientation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(2), pages 151-191, April.
    6. Paolo Pasimeni, 2022. "Supply or Demand, that is the Question: Decomposing Euro Area Inflation," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(6), pages 384-393, November.
    7. Viral V. Acharya & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger, 2023. "How Do Supply Shocks to Inflation Generalize? Evidence from the Pandemic Era in Europe," NBER Working Papers 31790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Gloria Allione & Claire Giordano, 2023. "Are the Happy Few still happy? Exporter heterogeneity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 816, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Gustavo González & Emiliano Luttini & Marco Rojas, 2023. "Freight costs and domestic prices during the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 982, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. repec:ocp:rpaeco:pb_18-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Dreger, Christian, 2023. "The impact of demand and supply shocks on inflation. Evidence for the US and the Euro area," MPRA Paper 116316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ángel Ubide, 2022. "The Inflation Surge of 2021–22: Scarcity of Goods and Commodities, Strong Labor Markets and Anchored Inflation Expectations," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(2), pages 93-98, March.
    13. Serhan Cevik & Alice Fan & Sadhna Naik, 2024. "Is inflation good for business? the firm-level impact of inflation shocks in the Baltics, 1997–2020," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1-19, October.
    14. Otaviano Canuto, 2022. "War in Ukraine and Risks of Stagflation," Policy briefs on Commodities & Energy 2210, Policy Center for the New South.
    15. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjornland & Jamie L. Cross & Helene Olsen Kalstad, 2024. "Unveiling inflation: Oil Shocks, Supply Chain Pressures, and Expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2024-68, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Mr. Anil Ari & Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados & Mr. Victor Mylonas & Mr. Lev Ratnovski & Wei Zhao, 2023. "One Hundred Inflation Shocks: Seven Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 2023/190, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Pansera, Mario & Lloveras, Javier & Durrant, Daniel, 2024. "The infrastructural conditions of (de-)growth: The case of the internet," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    18. Aguirre, Idoia & Casares, Miguel, 2024. "The post-COVID inflation episode," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    19. George Saridakis & Constantinos Alexiou & Roger Hoseinc & Nirvana Satnarine-Singhc, 2022. "Hegemonic Sanctions and Global Economic Ramifications in the Context of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict: A Commentary," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 72(1-2), pages 34-55, January-J.
    20. Nicholas Apergis, 2024. "Euro area inflation in the era of COVID‐19: A permanent or a transitory phenomenon?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 92(3), pages 231-245, June.
    21. repec:ocp:ppaper:pb18-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. J. Verschuur & E. E. Koks & J. W. Hall, 2022. "Ports’ criticality in international trade and global supply-chains," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    23. David Cronin, 2022. "Inflation Shocks – Do Monetary Variables Matter?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 41(2), pages 182-188, June.

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