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Labour market miracle, productivity debacle: Measuring the effects of skill-biased and skill-neutral technical change

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  • Hutter, Christian
  • Weber, Enzo

Abstract

This paper examines the role of skill-biased and skill-neutral technical change for productivity and employment. Thereby, we explore the puzzling macro development in Germany, witnessing job miracle and productivity debacle in parallel. In the literature, skill-biased technical change (SBTC) is known as an important driving factor for labour markets. We measure SBTC using comprehensive micro data and construct a structural macroeconometric framework identified by long-run restrictions. The results show that weaker SBTC explains 69 percent of the productivity slowdown since the early 2000s. Skill-biased technology shocks have a negative and skill-neutral technology shocks a positive hours effect. Twenty-five percent of the hours upswing since 2005 can be explained by reduced pressure from SBTC. Moreover, we analyse routine-biased technical change (RBTC) and find productivity and hours effects comparable to SBTC. However, only the latter can explain the job miracle – productivity debacle puzzle, since RBTC does not flatten substantially in the 2000s.

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  • Hutter, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2021. "Labour market miracle, productivity debacle: Measuring the effects of skill-biased and skill-neutral technical change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:102:y:2021:i:c:s0264999321001735
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105584
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    3. Ulrike Unterhofer & Conny Wunsch, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of Active Labour Market Policies: A Novel Instrumental Variables Approach," Papers 2211.12437, arXiv.org.
    4. Zarges, Lara & Lehmann, Robert, 2024. "What Drives Trend German GDP Growth? A Disaggregated Sectoral View," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302409, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Agus Salim & Jun Wen & Anas Usman Bello & Firsty Ramadhona Amalia Lubis & Rifki Khoirudin & Uswatun Khasanah & Lestari Sukarniati & Muhammad Safar Nasir, 2024. "Does information and communication technology improve labor productivity? Recent evidence from the Southeast Asian emerging economies," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), March.
    6. Feng, Suling & Zhang, Rong & Di, Danyang & Li, Guoxiang, 2024. "Does digital transformation promote global value chain upgrading? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Santos, Anabela Marques & Barbero, Javier & Salotti, Simone & Conte, Andrea, 2023. "Job creation and destruction in the digital age: Assessing heterogeneous effects across European Union countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Productivity; Technology shocks; Skill bias; Hours worked; SVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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