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Structural transformation, urbanization, and remittances in developing countries: A panel VAR analysis

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  • Abbas, Syed Ali
  • Selvanathan, Saroja
  • Selvanathan, Eliyathamby A.

Abstract

Structural transformation and urbanization have increased greatly in developing countries over the last few decades. Migrant remittances—private external financial flows—have also grown phenomenally during this period. The literature reveals a significant causal relationship between urbanization and economic growth and considers urban cities to be the engines of growth. However, investigation into the link between structural transformation, urbanization, and remittances is missing in the literature. This study aims to fill that gap by investigating the relationship between structural transformation, urbanization, remittances, and GDP growth in developing countries. After finding no long-run relationship between the respective variables, this study applies vector autoregressive modelling to determine their short-run dynamic causal relationship, using panel data from 95 developing countries for the period 1980–2018. Its findings suggest that there is a two-way (bi-directional) causal relationship between structural transformation and urbanization, structural transformation and GDP growth, urbanization and GDP growth, and urbanization and remittances. Rapid urbanization can increase housing prices and overall urban living costs, which may increase remittance flows that support consumption. Likewise, increased urban infrastructure development may also attract remittances to real-estate investment, leading to further urbanization.

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  • Abbas, Syed Ali & Selvanathan, Saroja & Selvanathan, Eliyathamby A., 2023. "Structural transformation, urbanization, and remittances in developing countries: A panel VAR analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 55-69.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:79:y:2023:i:c:p:55-69
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2023.06.010
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural transformation; Urbanization; Remittances; Economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • L80 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - General
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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