IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jecgro/v21y2016i1d10.1007_s10887-015-9121-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Urbanization with and without industrialization

Author

Listed:
  • Douglas Gollin

    (University of Oxford)

  • Remi Jedwab

    (George Washington University)

  • Dietrich Vollrath

    (University of Houston)

Abstract

We document a strong positive relationship between natural resource exports and urbanization in a sample of 116 developing nations over the period 1960–2010. In countries that are heavily dependent on resource exports, urbanization appears to be concentrated in “consumption cities” where the economies consist primarily of non-tradable services. These contrast with “production cities” that are more dependent on manufacturing in countries that have industrialized. Consumption cities in resource exporters also appear to perform worse along several measures of welfare. We offer a simple model of structural change that can explain the observed patterns of urbanization and the associated differences in city types. We note that although the development literature often assumes that urbanization is synonymous with industrialization, patterns differ markedly across developing countries. We discuss several possible implications for policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas Gollin & Remi Jedwab & Dietrich Vollrath, 2016. "Urbanization with and without industrialization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 35-70, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jecgro:v:21:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10887-015-9121-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10887-015-9121-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10887-015-9121-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10887-015-9121-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward L. Glaeser, Jed Kolko, and Albert Saiz, 2001. "Consumer city," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 27-50, January.
    2. Torfinn Harding & Anthony J Venables, 2016. "The Implications of Natural Resource Exports for Nonresource Trade," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(2), pages 268-302, June.
    3. Gollin, Douglas & Parente, Stephen L. & Rogerson, Richard, 2007. "The food problem and the evolution of international income levels," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1230-1255, May.
    4. Barrios, Salvador & Bertinelli, Luisito & Strobl, Eric, 2006. "Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 357-371, November.
    5. Margarida Duarte & Diego Restuccia, 2010. "The Role of the Structural Transformation in Aggregate Productivity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 129-173.
    6. Todd Schoellman, 2012. "Education Quality and Development Accounting," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(1), pages 388-417.
    7. Margaret S. McMillan & Dani Rodrik, 2011. "Globalization, Structural Change and Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 17143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Remi Jedwab & Dietrich Vollrath, 2015. "The Mortality Transition, Malthusian Dynamics, and the Rise of Poor Mega-Cities," Working Papers 2015-6, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    9. Davis, James C. & Henderson, J. Vernon, 2003. "Evidence on the political economy of the urbanization process," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 98-125, January.
    10. Robert E. Lucas, 2009. "Trade and the Diffusion of the Industrial Revolution," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 1-25, January.
    11. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2009. "Structural Change in an Interdependent World: A Global View of Manufacturing Decline," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(2-3), pages 478-486, 04-05.
    12. Douglas Gollin & Stephen Parente & Richard Rogerson, 2002. "The Role of Agriculture in Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 160-164, May.
    13. Gilles Duranton, 2007. "From cities to productivity and growth in developing countries," Working Papers tecipa-306, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    14. repec:hoo:wpaper:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. De Long, J Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei, 1993. "Princes and Merchants: European City Growth before the Industrial Revolution," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(2), pages 671-702, October.
    16. Filipe Campante & Edward L. Glaeser, 2018. "Yet another tale of two cities: Buenos Aires and Chicago," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 27(1), pages 1-33, December.
    17. Guy Michaels & Ferdinand Rauch & Stephen J. Redding, 2012. "Urbanization and Structural Transformation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 535-586.
    18. Deborah Potts, 2005. "Counter-urbanisation on the Zambian Copperbelt? Interpretations and Implications," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 42(4), pages 583-609, April.
    19. Vollrath, Dietrich, 2009. "How important are dual economy effects for aggregate productivity?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 325-334, March.
    20. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2002. "Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1231-1294.
    21. Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb, 2009. "The Wealth of Cities: Agglomeration Economies and Spatial Equilibrium in the United States," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 983-1028, December.
    22. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Malthus to Solow," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1205-1217, September.
    23. Douglas Gollin & David Lagakos & Michael E. Waugh, 2014. "The Agricultural Productivity Gap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(2), pages 939-993.
    24. Guy Michaels, 2011. "The Long Term Consequences of Resource‐Based Specialisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 31-57, March.
    25. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 317-334, December.
    26. Gilles Duranton, 2008. "Viewpoint: From cities to productivity and growth in developing countries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 689-736, August.
    27. Remi Jedwab & Luc Christiaensen & Marina Gindelsky, 2014. "Rural Push, Urban Pull and... Urban Push? New Historical Evidence from Developing Countries," Working Papers 2014-04, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    28. Brückner, Markus, 2012. "Economic growth, size of the agricultural sector, and urbanization in Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 26-36.
    29. J. Vernon Henderson, 2010. "Cities And Development," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 515-540, February.
    30. Edward L. Glaeser, 2013. "A World of Cities: The Causes and Consequences of Urbanization in Poorer Countries," NBER Working Papers 19745, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Francisco Alvarez-Cuadrado & Markus Poschke, 2011. "Structural Change Out of Agriculture: Labor Push versus Labor Pull," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 127-158, July.
    32. David Lagakos & Michael E. Waugh, 2013. "Selection, Agriculture, and Cross-Country Productivity Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 948-980, April.
    33. J. Bradford Jensen & Lori G. Kletzer, 2010. "Measuring Tradable Services and the Task Content of Offshorable Services Jobs," NBER Chapters, in: Labor in the New Economy, pages 309-335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Oded Galor & Andrew Mountford, 2008. "Trading Population for Productivity: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(4), pages 1143-1179.
    35. Glaeser, Edward L & Hedi D. Kallal & Jose A. Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 1992. "Growth in Cities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1126-1152, December.
      • Edward L. Glaeser & Hedi D. Kallal & Jose A. Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 1991. "Growth in Cities," NBER Working Papers 3787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Glaeser, Edward Ludwig & Kallal, Hedi D. & Scheinkman, Jose A. & Shleifer, Andrei, 1992. "Growth in Cities," Scholarly Articles 3451309, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    36. Dietrich Vollrath, 2009. "The dual economy in long-run development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 287-312, December.
    37. Dani Rodrik, 2013. "Unconditional Convergence in Manufacturing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(1), pages 165-204.
    38. repec:oup:qjecon:v:129:y:2014:i:2:p:939-993. is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Henderson, Vernon, 2003. "The Urbanization Process and Economic Growth: The So-What Question," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 47-71, March.
    40. Jedwab, Remi & Vollrath, Dietrich, 2015. "Urbanization without growth in historical perspective," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-21.
    41. Alberto F. Ades & Edward L. Glaeser, 1995. "Trade and Circuses: Explaining Urban Giants," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 195-227.
    42. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 2004. "Life Earnings and Rural-Urban Migration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(S1), pages 29-59, February.
    43. World Bank, 2013. "World Development Indicators 2013," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13191.
    44. Fay, Marianne & Opal, Charlotte, 2000. "Urbanization without growth : a not-so-uncommon phenomenon," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2412, The World Bank.
    45. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    46. Henderson, J. Vernon & Roberts, Mark & Storeygard, Adam, 2013. "Is urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa different ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6481, The World Bank.
    47. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 2001. "The curse of natural resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 827-838, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jedwab, Remi & Vollrath, Dietrich, 2015. "Urbanization without growth in historical perspective," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-21.
    2. Jedwab, Remi & Christiaensen, Luc & Gindelsky, Marina, 2017. "Demography, urbanization and development: Rural push, urban pull and…urban push?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 6-16.
    3. Desmet, Klaus & Henderson, J. Vernon, 2015. "The Geography of Development Within Countries," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1457-1517, Elsevier.
    4. Abbas, Syed Ali & Selvanathan, Saroja & Selvanathan, Eliyathamby A., 2023. "Structural transformation, urbanization, and remittances in developing countries: A panel VAR analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 55-69.
    5. J. Vernon Henderson & Sebastian Kriticos, 2018. "The Development of the African System of Cities," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 287-314, August.
    6. Wingender, Asger Moll, 2015. "Skill complementarity and the dual economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 269-285.
    7. repec:ags:aaea22:335503 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. McArthur, John W. & McCord, Gordon C., 2017. "Fertilizing growth: Agricultural inputs and their effects in economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 133-152.
    9. Emerick, Kyle, 2018. "Agricultural productivity and the sectoral reallocation of labor in rural India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 488-503.
    10. Jonathan J. ADAMS, 2022. "Urbanization, Long-run Growth, and the Demographic Transition," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 88(1), pages 31-37, March.
    11. Monteforte, Fabio, 2020. "Structural change, the push-pull hypothesis and the Spanish labour market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 148-169.
    12. Üngör, Murat, 2013. "De-agriculturalization as a result of productivity growth in agriculture," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 141-145.
    13. Herrendorf, Berthold & Rogerson, Richard & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2014. "Growth and Structural Transformation," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 855-941, Elsevier.
    14. Brückner, Markus, 2012. "Economic growth, size of the agricultural sector, and urbanization in Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 26-36.
    15. Ju, Jiandong & Lin, Justin Yifu & Wang, Yong, 2015. "Endowment structures, industrial dynamics, and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 244-263.
    16. Seung Mo Choi & Hwagyun Kim & Xiaohan Ma, 2021. "Trade, structural transformation and growth," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(6), pages 1770-1794, June.
    17. Dorinet, Elizavetta & Jouvet, Pierre-André & Wolfersberger, Julien, 2021. "Is the agricultural sector cursed too? Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    18. Kuralbayeva, Karlygash & Stefanski, Radoslaw, 2013. "Windfalls, structural transformation and specialization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 273-301.
    19. Murat Üngör, 2016. "Did the rising importance of services decelerate overall productivity improvement of Turkey during 2002–2007?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 238-261, July.
    20. Castells-Quintana, David, 2017. "Malthus living in a slum: Urban concentration, infrastructure and economic growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 158-173.
    21. Dorinet, Elizavetta & Jouvet, Pierre-André & Wolfersberger, Julien, 2021. "Is the agricultural sector cursed too? Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic development; Structural change; Industrial revolution; Natural resource revolution; Urbanization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N90 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jecgro:v:21:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10887-015-9121-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.