IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecanpo/v68y2020icp363-378.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The future of coal and renewable power generation in Australia: A review of market trends

Author

Listed:
  • Webb, Jeremy
  • de Silva, H. Nadeeka
  • Wilson, Clevo

Abstract

Recent estimates of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) indicate a watershed moment where market forces have become the foremost driver in the replacement of coal by renewable sources. Current studies indicate an energy market is emerging in which not only new renewable plants are more cost effective than new coal fired power plants (CFPPs), but also the former is becoming more cost effective than existing CFPPS on a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) basis. However, an accelerated retirement of existing CFPPs depends both on the price received by power plants on a time weighted basis and on the total cost of energy which, in addition to the LCOE, takes into account costs of distribution and storage needed to overcome intermittent supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Webb, Jeremy & de Silva, H. Nadeeka & Wilson, Clevo, 2020. "The future of coal and renewable power generation in Australia: A review of market trends," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 363-378.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:68:y:2020:i:c:p:363-378
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2020.10.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592620304318
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eap.2020.10.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas, Vinod & López, Ramón, 2015. "Global Increase in Climated-Related Disasters," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 466, Asian Development Bank.
    2. Paul J. Burke, 2016. "Undermined by Adverse Selection: Australia's Direct Action Abatement Subsidies," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(3), pages 216-229, September.
    3. Frank Jotzo & Salim Mazouz & John Wiseman, 2018. "Coal Transition in Australia: an overview of issues," CCEP Working Papers 1811, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Simshauser, Paul, 2020. "Merchant renewables and the valuation of peaking plant in energy-only markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Paul Simshauser, 2019. "On the Stability of Energy-Only Markets with Government-Initiated Contracts-for-Differences," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-24, July.
    6. Johnson, Nils & Krey, Volker & McCollum, David L. & Rao, Shilpa & Riahi, Keywan & Rogelj, Joeri, 2015. "Stranded on a low-carbon planet: Implications of climate policy for the phase-out of coal-based power plants," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 89-102.
    7. Vu, Thang Toan & Lim, Young-Il & Song, Daesung & Mun, Tae-Young & Moon, Ji-Hong & Sun, Dowon & Hwang, Yoon-Tae & Lee, Jae-Goo & Park, Young Cheol, 2020. "Techno-economic analysis of ultra-supercritical power plants using air- and oxy-combustion circulating fluidized bed with and without CO2 capture," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    8. Mattauch, Linus & Creutzig, Felix & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2015. "Avoiding carbon lock-in: Policy options for advancing structural change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 49-63.
    9. McNerney, James & Doyne Farmer, J. & Trancik, Jessika E., 2011. "Historical costs of coal-fired electricity and implications for the future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3042-3054, June.
    10. Florian Egli & Bjarne Steffen & Tobias S. Schmidt, 2019. "Learning in the financial sector is essential for reducing renewable energy costs," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 4(10), pages 835-836, October.
    11. Hirth, Lion, 2013. "The market value of variable renewables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 218-236.
    12. Harrison Fell & Daniel T. Kaffine, 2018. "The Fall of Coal: Joint Impacts of Fuel Prices and Renewables on Generation and Emissions," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 90-116, May.
    13. Guidolin, Mariangela & Alpcan, Tansu, 2019. "Transition to sustainable energy generation in Australia: Interplay between coal, gas and renewables," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 359-367.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Geroe, Steven, 2022. "‘Technology not taxes’: A viable Australian path to net zero emissions?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    2. Gohdes, Nicholas & Simshauser, Paul & Wilson, Clevo, 2022. "Renewable entry costs, project finance and the role of revenue quality in Australia's National Electricity Market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    3. Mahinda Vilathgamuwa & Yateendra Mishra & Tan Yigitcanlar & Ashish Bhaskar & Clevo Wilson, 2022. "Mobile-Energy-as-a-Service (MEaaS): Sustainable Electromobility via Integrated Energy–Transport–Urban Infrastructure," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-16, February.
    4. Christian Hauenstein & Franziska Holz & Lennart Rathje & Thomas Mitterecker, 2022. "Stranded Assets in the Coal Export Industry? The Case of the Australian Galilee Basin," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2003, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Tao, Chang-Qi & Yi, Meng-Ying & Wang, Chang-Song, 2023. "Coupling coordination analysis and Spatiotemporal heterogeneity between data elements and green development in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1-15.
    6. Jun Dong & Dongran Liu & Xihao Dou & Bo Li & Shiyao Lv & Yuzheng Jiang & Tongtao Ma, 2021. "Key Issues and Technical Applications in the Study of Power Markets as the System Adapts to the New Power System in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-29, December.
    7. Zhu, Qing & Lu, Kai & Liu, Shan & Ruan, Yinglin & Wang, Lin & Yang, Sung-Byung, 2022. "Can low-carbon value bring high returns? Novel quantitative trading from portfolio-of-investment targets in a new-energy market," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 755-769.
    8. Veselov, Fedor & Pankrushina, Tatiana & Khorshev, Andrey, 2021. "Comparative economic analysis of technological priorities for low-carbon transformation of electric power industry in Russia and the EU," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    9. Bo Shang, 2024. "Cooperation and Profit Allocation Mechanism of Traditional and New Energy Complementary Power Generation: A Framework for Renewable Portfolio Standards," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-27, October.
    10. Kenta Tanaka & Clevo Wilson & Shunsuke Managi, 2022. "Impact of feed-in tariffs on electricity consumption," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 24(1), pages 49-72, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Qu, Songze & Ancev, Tihomir, 2019. "The effect of wind and solar power generation on wholesale electricity prices in Australia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 358-369.
    2. Gohdes, Nicholas & Simshauser, Paul & Wilson, Clevo, 2022. "Renewable entry costs, project finance and the role of revenue quality in Australia's National Electricity Market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    3. Paul Simshauser & Farhad Billimoria & Craig Rogers, 2021. "Optimising VRE plant capacity in Renewable Energy Zones," Working Papers EPRG2121, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    4. Simshauser, Paul, 2022. "Rooftop solar PV and the peak load problem in the NEM's Queensland region," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. Simshauser, P., 2020. "Merchant utilities and boundaries of the firm: vertical integration in energy-only markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2039, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Farhad Billimoria & Paul Simshauser, 2023. "Contract design for storage in hybrid electricity markets," Working Papers EPRG2304, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    7. Simshauser, P. & Gilmore, J., 2020. "Is the NEM broken? Policy discontinuity and the 2017-2020 investment megacycle," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2048, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. Simshauser, Paul, 2019. "Missing money, missing policy and Resource Adequacy in Australia's National Electricity Market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Brown, T. & Reichenberg, L., 2021. "Decreasing market value of variable renewables can be avoided by policy action," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    10. Simshauser, Paul, 2021. "Renewable Energy Zones in Australia's National Electricity Market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    11. Glenk, Gunther & Reichelstein, Stefan, 2021. "Intermittent versus dispatchable power sources: An integrated competitive assessment," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-065, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    12. Ricardo Gonçalves & Flávio Menezes, 2022. "Market‐wide impact of renewables on electricity prices in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 98(320), pages 1-21, March.
    13. Simshauser, Paul & Billimoria, Farhad & Rogers, Craig, 2022. "Optimising VRE capacity in Renewable Energy Zones," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    14. Yasir Alsaedi & Gurudeo Anand Tularam & Victor Wong, 2021. "Impact of the Nature of Energy Management and Responses to Policies Regarding Solar and Wind Pricing: A Qualitative Study of the Australian Electricity Markets," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 191-205.
    15. Simshauser, Paul, 2020. "Merchant renewables and the valuation of peaking plant in energy-only markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    16. Bistline, John & Santen, Nidhi & Young, David, 2019. "The economic geography of variable renewable energy and impacts of trade formulations for renewable mandates," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 79-96.
    17. Flottmann, Jonty H. & Akimov, Alexandr & Simshauser, Paul, 2022. "Firming merchant renewable generators in Australia’s National Electricity Market," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 262-276.
    18. Gonçalves, Ricardo & Menezes, Flávio, 2022. "The price impacts of the exit of the Hazelwood coal power plant," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    19. Gohdes, N. & Simshauser, P., 2022. "Renewable entry costs, project finance and the role of revenue quality in Australia’s National Electricity Market," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2206, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    20. Gohdes, Nicholas, 2023. "Unhedged risk in hybrid energy markets: Optimising the revenue mix of Australian solar," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1363-1380.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:68:y:2020:i:c:p:363-378. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-analysis-and-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.