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Transitioning from conventional to electric vehicles: The effect of cost and environmental drivers on peak oil demand

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  • Sioshansi, Fereidoon
  • Webb, Jeremy

Abstract

There are widely varying projections as to the rate at which there is a transition from conventional to electric vehicles (EVs) and the related question of the proximity to peak oil demand. A critical element in these estimates is whether automotive companies will invest in further fuel saving technologies for internal combustion engine vehicles (ICVs) or accelerate EV development and production. Cited studies indicate EV cost parity is already achievable if economies of scale similar to ICVs are accessed. Equally, a number of studies are showing that EV whole of life per km costs are equal to, or are already lower than ICVs particularly if a substantially greater durability of EVs is accepted. Car sharing based on EVs and the advent of transport as a shared service (TaaS) is also identified as likely to further accelerate the EV/ICV transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Sioshansi, Fereidoon & Webb, Jeremy, 2019. "Transitioning from conventional to electric vehicles: The effect of cost and environmental drivers on peak oil demand," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 7-15.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:61:y:2019:i:c:p:7-15
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2018.12.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Phil Goodwin & Kurt Van Dender, 2013. "'Peak Car' - Themes and Issues," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 243-254, May.
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    3. Max Briggs & Jeremy Webb & Clevo Wilson, 2015. "Automotive Modal Lock-in: The role of path dependence and large socio-economic regimes in market failure," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(c), pages 58-68.
    4. Bardi, Ugo, 2009. "Peak oil: The four stages of a new idea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 323-326.
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    Cited by:

    1. Webb, Jeremy, 2019. "The future of transport: Literature review and overview," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-6.
    2. Su, Chi Wei & Shao, Xuefeng & Jia, Zhijie & Nepal, Rabindra & Umar, Muhammad & Qin, Meng, 2023. "The rise of green energy metal: Could lithium threaten the status of oil?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    3. Ibrahim, Amier & Jiang, Fangming, 2021. "The electric vehicle energy management: An overview of the energy system and related modeling and simulation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    4. Stergios Statharas & Yannis Moysoglou & Pelopidas Siskos & Pantelis Capros, 2021. "Simulating the Evolution of Business Models for Electricity Recharging Infrastructure Development by 2030: A Case Study for Greece," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-24, April.
    5. Hunt, Julian David & Nascimento, Andreas & Nascimento, Nazem & Vieira, Lara Werncke & Romero, Oldrich Joel, 2022. "Possible pathways for oil and gas companies in a sustainable future: From the perspective of a hydrogen economy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).

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