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Prices and investment with collateral and default

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  • Magill, Michael
  • Quinzii, Martine

Abstract

This paper uses the framework of an OLG economy with three-period lived agents in which a durable good serves as collateral for loans, to study the effect of an unanticipated income shock when the economy is in a steady state equilibrium. We focus on the consequence of default on loans when the value of the collateral falls below the value of the debt it secures. We analyze the impulse response functions of the price and production of the durable good and show that there is an asymmetry between the response of the price and investment of the durable good to a positive and a negative income shock arising from default on the collateralized loans. We show that this asymmetry can be seen in the data on housing prices and construction and is attributable to the default on mortgages in periods of decreasing prices which acts as a turbo mechanism magnifying the decline in investment.

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  • Magill, Michael & Quinzii, Martine, 2015. "Prices and investment with collateral and default," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 111-132.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:51:y:2015:i:c:p:111-132
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.10.002
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    2. León-Ledesma, Miguel & Orrillo, Jaime, 2021. "Production, bankruptcy, and financial policies under collateral constraints," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 109-119.
    3. Ngoc-Sang Pham, 2022. "Impacts of (individual and aggregate) productivity and credit shocks on equilibrium aggregate production," Working Papers halshs-03686284, HAL.
    4. Pham, Ngoc-Sang, 2018. "Credit limits and heterogeneity in general equilibrium models with a finite number of agents," MPRA Paper 88736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Yifei Wu & Jeffrey H Dorfman, 2018. "Reducing residential mortgage default: Should policy act before or after home purchases?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(7), pages 1-23, July.
    6. Pavan, Marina & Barreda-Tarrazona, Iván, 2020. "Should I default on my mortgage even if I can pay? Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    7. Yifei Wu & Jeffrey H. Dorfman & Brady E. Brewer, 2021. "The susceptibility of farmland loans to default under falling farmland and commodity prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(4), pages 561-574, July.

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