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A behavioral hybrid New Keynesian model: Quantifying the importance of belief formation frictions

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  • Afsar, Atahan
  • Gallegos, José-Elías
  • Jaimes, Richard
  • Silgado-Gómez, Edgar

Abstract

Recent evidence points towards significant belief formation frictions and forecast sluggishness. In this paper, we build a bounded rationality New Keynesian model, estimated to match the degree of forecast sluggishness present in the data. We find that bounded rationality induces enough myopia and intrinsic persistence, diminishing the influence of consumption habits and price indexation. Additionally, the bounded rationality model generates impulse response dynamics to monetary policy shocks that resemble those observed in empirical estimations. This study highlights the significance of bounded rationality in capturing real-world dynamics and provides valuable insights into the role of belief formation frictions in macroeconomic modeling.

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  • Afsar, Atahan & Gallegos, José-Elías & Jaimes, Richard & Silgado-Gómez, Edgar, 2024. "A behavioral hybrid New Keynesian model: Quantifying the importance of belief formation frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:132:y:2024:i:c:s0264999323004388
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106626
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    New Keynesian; Bounded rationality; Bayesian estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy

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