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The Euro/Dollar exchange rate: Chaotic or non-chaotic? A continuous time model with heterogeneous beliefs

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  • Federici, Daniela
  • Gandolfo, Giancarlo

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to develop a continuous time exchange rate model that allows for heterogeneity of the agents' beliefs, in order to explore non-linearities and possible chaotic behaviour. The theoretical model contains an intrinsic non-linearity that gives rise to a jerk differential equation, which is in principle capable of generating chaos. The model is econometrically estimated in continuous time with Euro/Dollar data and examined for the possible presence of chaotic motion. Our results indicate that the possibility of chaotic dynamics in our model is rejected.

Suggested Citation

  • Federici, Daniela & Gandolfo, Giancarlo, 2012. "The Euro/Dollar exchange rate: Chaotic or non-chaotic? A continuous time model with heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 670-681.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:36:y:2012:i:4:p:670-681
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2011.11.008
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    4. Giancarlo Gandolfo, 2015. "The Tobin tax in a continuous-time non-linear dynamic model of the exchange rate," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 39(6), pages 1629-1643.
    5. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2014. "Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-05, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    6. Michele Gori & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2018. "A dynamic exchange rate model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 399-415, April.
    7. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2014. "Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-05, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2015. "Measuring the dollar–euro permanent equilibrium exchange rate using the unobserved components model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 20-35.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Chaos; Jerk equation; Continuous time econometrics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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