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Structural Nonlinear Continuous-Time Models In Econometrics

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  • WYMER, CLIFFORD R.

Abstract

Economic theory indicates the need for nonlinear structural models to study medium-term and long-run dynamic behavior of an economy. This paper argues that economic systems can be better specified and estimated using differential-equation rather than difference-equation systems and briefly reviews the estimators of continuous models. This approach of specifying structural models on the basis of economic theory and institutional structure explicitly and then testing the underlying hypothesis to verify the structural form is contrasted with a general-to-specific approach of successively more restricted VARMAX processes. Previous analyses of stability about the steady state or fixed point in phase space are extended to more general attractors to allow an investigation of complexity in economic systems. The critical dependence of some attractors, and particularly strange attractors, on parameter values emphasizes the need for consistent, efficient estimation. A structural approach provides a rigorous alternative to using single time series to determine whether economic systems exhibit aperiodic or chaotic dynamical behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Wymer, Clifford R., 1997. "Structural Nonlinear Continuous-Time Models In Econometrics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 518-548, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:1:y:1997:i:02:p:518-548_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Barnett, William A. & Chen, Guo, 2015. "Bifurcation of Macroeconometric Models and Robustness of Dynamical Inferences," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 8(1-2), pages 1-144, September.
    2. Ari-Matti Näätänen, 2015. "The Impact of Economic Globalization on the Employment Policies in 19 Western Democracies from 1985 to 2010. Limited Change or Radical Shift towards Workfare?," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-18, September.
    3. Rodrick Wallace, 2013. "A new formal approach to evolutionary processes in socioeconomic systems," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 1-15, January.
    4. William Barnett & Yijun He, 2006. "Existence of Bifurcation in Macroeconomic Dynamics: Grandmont was Right," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200610, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    5. Wymer, Clifford R. & Saltari, Enrico & Federici, Daniela, 2019. "Endogenizing The Ict Sector: A Multisector Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(S1), pages 25-58, September.
    6. William A. Barnett & Yijun He & ., 1999. "Stabilization Policy as Bifurcation Selection: Would Keynesian Policy Work if the World Really were Keynesian?," Macroeconomics 9906008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Belloc, Marianna & Federici, Daniela, 2010. "A two-country NATREX model for the euro/dollar," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 315-335, March.
    8. Saltari, Enrico & Wymer, Clifford R. & Federici, Daniela, 2013. "The impact of ICT and business services on the Italian economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 110-118.
    9. Enrico Saltari, 2012. "The role of ICT and Business Services in Italy," Working Papers in Public Economics 152, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    10. Barnett, William A. & He, Susan, 2010. "Existence of singularity bifurcation in an Euler-equations model of the United States economy: Grandmont was right," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1345-1354, November.
    11. Wymer Clifford R., 2012. "Continuous-Tme Econometrics of Structural Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 1-28, April.
    12. Federici, Daniela & Saltari, Enrico, 2018. "Elasticity Of Substitution And Technical Progress: Is There A Misspecification Problem?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 101-121, January.
    13. Kieran P. Donaghy, 1998. "Incomes Policies Revisited," Working Papers 46, Sapienza University of Rome, CIDEI.
    14. Chambers, MJ & McCrorie, JR & Thornton, MA, 2017. "Continuous Time Modelling Based on an Exact Discrete Time Representation," Economics Discussion Papers 20497, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    15. Kieran Donaghy & Clifford R. Wymer & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings & Soo Jung Ha, 2017. "Structural change in the Chicago region and the impact on emission inventories in a continuous-time modeling approach," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, December.
    16. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "Some thoughts on accurate characterization of stock market indexes trends in conditions of nonlinear capital flows during electronic trading at stock exchanges in global capital markets," MPRA Paper 49921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. William A. Barnett & Yijun He, 1999. "Center Manifold, Stability, and Bifurcations in Continuous Time Macroeconometric Systems," Macroeconomics 9901002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Cavallaro, Eleonora & Maggi, Bernardo, 2016. "State of confidence, overborrowing and macroeconomic stabilization in out-of-equilibrium dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 210-223.
    19. Saltari Enrico & Wymer Clifford R. & Federici Daniela & Giannetti Marilena, 2012. "Technological Adoption with Imperfect Markets in the Italian Economy," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 1-30, April.
    20. Federici, Daniela & Gandolfo, Giancarlo, 2012. "The Euro/Dollar exchange rate: Chaotic or non-chaotic? A continuous time model with heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 670-681.
    21. Maggi, Bernardo, 2017. "A technology-based countries-interaction dynamic model for the study of European growth and stability: Were there the conditions for convergence?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 275-288.

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