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An instrumental variables approach to estimating tax revenue elasticities: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Brückner, Markus

Abstract

This paper exploits the significant response of real GDP growth of Sub-Saharan African countries to exogenous international commodity price and rainfall shocks to construct instrumental variables estimates of the tax revenue elasticity IV estimates yield that a 1% increase in GDP increases tax revenues by up to 2.5%.

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  • Brückner, Markus, 2012. "An instrumental variables approach to estimating tax revenue elasticities: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 220-227.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:98:y:2012:i:2:p:220-227
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2011.07.006
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    14. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010. "International Commodity Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 519-534, May.
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    18. Mr. Shamsuddin Tareq & Mr. Andrew Berg & Victor Duarte Lledo & Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo & Mr. Rolando Ossowski & Irene Yackovlev & Mr. Norbert Funke & Alejandro Hajdenberg & Mr. Martin Schindler, 2009. "Fiscal Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa in Response to the Impact of the Global Crisis," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/010, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Adam, Christopher S. & Bevan, David L. & Chambas, Gerard, 2001. "Exchange rate regimes and revenue performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 173-213, February.
    20. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    21. Heston, Alan, 1994. "A brief review of some problems in using national accounts data in level of output comparisons and growth studies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 29-52, June.
    22. Sobel, Russell S. & Holcombe, Randall G., 1996. "Measuring the Growth and Variability of Tax Bases over the Business Cycle," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(4), pages 535-52, December.
    23. Salvador Barrios & Luisito Bertinelli & Eric Strobl, 2010. "Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa: A Neglected Cause of the African Growth Tragedy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 350-366, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jhorland Ayala-Garcia & Sandy Dall'Erba & William C. Ridley, 2021. "Externalities of extreme natural disasters on local tax capacity," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 299, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Wenéyam Hippolyte Balima & Jean‐Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2016. "Bond Markets Initiation and Tax Revenue Mobilization in Developing Countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(2), pages 550-572, October.
    3. Mertens, Karel & Ravn, Morten O., 2014. "A reconciliation of SVAR and narrative estimates of tax multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S), pages 1-19.
    4. Navarat Temsumrit, 2020. "Does Democracy Affect Cyclical Fiscal Policy? Evidence From Developing Countries," PIER Discussion Papers 125, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Jhorland Ayala‐García & Sandy Dall'Erba, 2022. "The impact of preemptive investment on natural disasters," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(5), pages 1087-1103, October.
    6. Andersson, Jens & Lazuka, Volha, 2019. "Long-term drivers of taxation in francophone West Africa 1893–2010," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 294-313.
    7. Vivekananda Mukherjee, 2013. "Determinants of Stamp Duty Revenue in Indian States," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 2(1), pages 33-58, June.
    8. Gradstein, Mark & Brückner, Markus, 2011. "Government Spending Cyclicality: Evidence from Rainfall Shocks as an Instrument for Cyclical Income," CEPR Discussion Papers 8622, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Jhorland Ayala-García & Sandy Dall’Erba, 2021. "The impact of preemptive investment on natural disasters," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 301, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Jean-François Brun & Gérard Chambas & Jules Tapsoba & Abdoul-Akim Wandaogo, 2020. "Are ICT's boosting tax revenues? Evidence from developing countries," CERDI Working papers hal-02979897, HAL.
    11. Serhan Cevik, 2018. "Unlocking Pakistan’s Revenue Potential," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 7(1), pages 17-36, June.
    12. Mr. Serhan Cevik, 2016. "Unlocking Pakistan’s Revenue Potential," IMF Working Papers 2016/182, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Lagravinese, Raffaele & Liberati, Paolo & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "Tax buoyancy in OECD countries: New empirical evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    14. Sanoh, Aly, 2015. "Rainfall Shocks, Local Revenues, and Intergovernmental Transfer in Mali," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 359-370.
    15. Jean-François Brun & Gérard Chambas & Jules Tapsoba & Abdoul-Akim Wandaogo, 2020. "Are ICT's boosting tax revenues? Evidence from developing countries," Working Papers hal-02979897, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax revenues; Growth; Instrumental variables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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