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The short- and long-run tax revenue response to changes in tax bases

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  • Guido Wolswijk

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

This paper examines the short- and long-run behavior of tax receipts with regard to their tax bases. In addition, the possibility of asymmetries in tax responses is explicitly included. The methodology is applied to the three main tax categories in the Netherlands for the period 1971-2005, after removing effects from discretionary measures. The outcomes indicate that short-term elasticities can deviate markedly from long-term ones. Furthermore, short-term elasticities tend to be smaller in less favorable circumstances. Ignoring such differences between various elasticity measures may contribute to adverse revenue surprises.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Wolswijk, 2009. "The short- and long-run tax revenue response to changes in tax bases," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1960-1970.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00085
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa & Umut Unal, 2021. "Estimating Policy-Corrected Long-Term and Short-Term Tax Elasticities for the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202112, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    3. Melisso Boschi & Stefano d'Addona, 2019. "The Stability of Tax Elasticities over the Business Cycle in European Countries," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 175-210, June.
    4. Fotini Economou & Ioanna Kountouri & Yannis Panagopoulos & Georgia Skintzi & Ekaterini Tsouma, 2022. "Estimating excise tax revenue elasticity and buoyancy for tobacco products and alcoholic beverages: evidence from Greece," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(39), pages 4557-4576, August.
    5. Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Jiri Schwarz, 2016. "Dynamic elasticities of tax revenue: evidence from the Czech Republic," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(60), pages 5866-5881, December.
    6. Alina Georgeta AILINCA, 2022. "Assessing Some Fiscal Indicators In The European Union In The Period 2000-2021," Contemporary Economy Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 7(1), pages 28-37.
    7. Manjón Álvarez, Adrián M., 2018. "Elasticidades tributarias dinámicas: evidencias a corto plazo y largo plazo en Bolivia (1990-2018)," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 31, pages 100-134, May.
    8. Koester, Gerrit B. & Priesmeier, Christoph, 2012. "Estimating dynamic tax revenue elasticities for Germany," Discussion Papers 23/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. di Bella, Enrico & Gandullia, Luca & Leporatti, Lucia, 2014. "Short and long run income elasticity of gambling tax bases: evidence from Italy," MPRA Paper 73757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Fricke, Hans & Süssmuth, Bernd, 2014. "Growth and Volatility of Tax Revenues in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 114-138.
    11. Raffaele Lagravinese & Paolo Liberati & Agnese Sacchi, 2016. "The growth and variability of local taxes: An application to the Italian regions," Working Papers. Collection B: Regional and sectoral economics 1601, Universidade de Vigo, GEN - Governance and Economics research Network.
    12. Audi, Marc & Ali, Amjad & Roussel, Yannick, 2021. "Measuring the Tax Buoyancy: Empirics from South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)," MPRA Paper 109567, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa & Umut Ünal, 2023. "Estimating policy-corrected long-term and short-term tax elasticities for the USA, Germany, and the United Kingdom," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 465-504, January.
    14. Charalambos Pattichis, 2022. "Are tax revenue elasticities consistent with a balanced government budget? An analysis and implications for six CEE countries," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 33-40.
    15. Sean Dougherty & Pietrangelo Biase, 2021. "Who absorbs the shock? An analysis of the fiscal impact of the COVID-19 crisis on different levels of government," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 517-540, July.
    16. Koester, Gerrit & Priesmeier, Christoph, 2017. "Revenue elasticities in euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1989, European Central Bank.
    17. Brückner, Markus, 2012. "An instrumental variables approach to estimating tax revenue elasticities: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 220-227.
    18. Francis Kwaw Andoh & Nehemiah E. Osoro & Eliab Luvanda, 2019. "Growth Dynamics of Value-Added Tax Revenue in Ghana," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(2), June.
    19. Lagravinese, Raffaele & Liberati, Paolo & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "Tax buoyancy in OECD countries: New empirical evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    20. Niall Conroy, 2023. "The Role of Elasticities in Forecasting Irish Income Tax Revenue," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 54(2), pages 149-172.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax revenue; income elasticity; fiscal indicators; The Netherlands;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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