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Foreign aid and growth: A Sp P-VAR analysis using satellite sub-national data for Uganda

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  • Civelli, Andrea
  • Horowitz, Andrew
  • Teixeira, Arilton

Abstract

We develop a measurement strategy for the impact of foreign aid based on a regional spatial panel vector-autoregressive model (Sp P-VAR). We illustrate the strategy using Ugandan districts. Data for the regional units (ADM2) is assembled combining satellite sources for socio-economic activity, geo-located aid disbursements, and traditional household surveys. We find statistically significant positive and persistent effects of aid shocks on nighttime luminosity. Mapping nightlights to economic activity, the results suggest that the economic magnitude of these effects is small, but significant – with a multiplier between 4 and 5 in the long-run. The VAR addresses endogeneity concerns associated with non-random aid assignment.

Suggested Citation

  • Civelli, Andrea & Horowitz, Andrew & Teixeira, Arilton, 2018. "Foreign aid and growth: A Sp P-VAR analysis using satellite sub-national data for Uganda," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 50-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:134:y:2018:i:c:p:50-67
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.05.001
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    3. Njangang, Henri & Nembot Ndeffo, Luc & Noubissi Domguia, Edmond & Fosto Koyeu, Prevost, 2018. "The long-run and short-run effects of foreign direct investment, foreign aid and remittances on economic growth in African countries," MPRA Paper 89747, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Durevall, Dick & Isaksson, Ann-Sofie, 2022. "Aid and child health Local effects of aid on stunting in Malawi," Working Papers in Economics 830, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    5. Samuel Brazys & Johan A. Elkink, 2021. "“Aid for Trade” Effectiveness? Micro-level Evidence from Nepal," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 33(6), pages 1493-1513, December.
    6. Boateng, Elliot & Agbola, Frank W. & Mahmood, Amir, 2021. "Foreign aid volatility and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does institutional quality matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 111-127.
    7. Wang, Jing & Rickman, Dan S. & Yu, Yihua, 2022. "Dynamics between global value chain participation, CO2 emissions, and economic growth: Evidence from a panel vector autoregression model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    8. Alexandre Aspremont & Simon Ben Arous & Jean-Charles Bricongne & Benjamin Lietti & Baptiste Meunier, 2023. "Satellites Turn “Concrete”: Tracking Cement with Satellite Data and Neural Networks," Working papers 916, Banque de France.
    9. Ann-Sofie Isaksson & Dick Durevall, 2023. "Aid and institutions: Local effects of World Bank aid on perceived institutional quality in Africa," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 523-551, July.
    10. Lu, Yao & Zhao, Zhihui & Tian, Yuan & Zhan, Minghua, 2024. "How does the economic structure break change the forecast effect of money and credit on output? Evidence based on machine learning algorithms," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Haldar, Anasuya & Sethi, Narayan, 2022. "Effect of sectoral foreign aid allocation on growth and structural transformation in sub-Saharan Africa—Analysing the roles of institutional quality and human capital," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1010-1026.
    12. Didier Wayoro & Leonce Ndikumana, 2019. "Impact of Development aid on infant mortality : Micro-level evidence from Cote d’Ivoire," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2019-07, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    13. Didier Wayoro & Léonce Ndikumana, 2020. "Impact of development aid on infant mortality: Micro‐level evidence from Côte d'Ivoire," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 432-445, September.
    14. Lisa Chauvet & Marin Ferry, 2023. "L’efficacité de l’aide : quelles évolutions de la littérature depuis deux décennies ? WP329," Working Papers hal-04141543, HAL.
    15. Alia, Didier Y. & Wineman, Ayala Y. & Anderson, C. Leigh, 2020. "Development Assistance and Factor Markets In Nigeria: An Application of the Test of Agricultural Household Separability," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304474, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Official development assistance; Aid impact; Regional economic growth and development; Satellite nighttime luminosity; Spatial panel VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R2 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O22 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Project Analysis
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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