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Bayesian dynamic models for space–time point processes

Author

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  • Reis, Edna A.
  • Gamerman, Dani
  • Paez, Marina S.
  • Martins, Thiago G.

Abstract

In this work we propose a model for the intensity of a space–time point process, specified by a sequence of spatial surfaces that evolve dynamically in time. This specification allows flexible structures for the components of the model, in order to handle temporal and spatial variations both separately and jointly. These structures make use of state-space and Gaussian process tools. They are combined to create a richer class of models for the intensity process. This structural approach allows for a decomposition of the intensity into purely temporal, purely spatial and spatio-temporal terms. Inference is performed under a fully Bayesian approach, with the description of simulation-based and analytic methods for approximating the posterior distributions. The proposed methodology is applied to model the incidence of impulses in the small intestine, illustrated by a data-set obtained through an experiment conducted in cats, in order to understand the interaction between the nervous and digestive systems. This application illustrates the usefulness of the proposed methodology and shows it compares favorably against existing alternatives. The paper is concluded with a few directions for further investigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Reis, Edna A. & Gamerman, Dani & Paez, Marina S. & Martins, Thiago G., 2013. "Bayesian dynamic models for space–time point processes," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 146-156.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:60:y:2013:i:c:p:146-156
    DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2012.11.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yosihiko Ogata, 1998. "Space-Time Point-Process Models for Earthquake Occurrences," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 50(2), pages 379-402, June.
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    6. Anders Brix & Jesper Moller, 2001. "Space‐time Multi Type Log Gaussian Cox Processes with a View to Modelling Weeds," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 28(3), pages 471-488, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fidel Ernesto Castro Morales & Dimitris N. Politis & Jacek Leskow & Marina Silva Paez, 2022. "Student’s-t process with spatial deformation for spatio-temporal data," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(5), pages 1099-1126, December.

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