Environmental Effects on the Spatiotemporal Variability of Sardine Distribution Along the Portuguese Continental Coast

Scientific tools capable of identifying distribution patterns of species are important as they contribute to improve knowledge about biodiversity and species dynamics. The present study aims to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of sardine (Sardina pilchardus, Walbaum 1792) in the Portuguese continental waters, relating the spatiotemporal variability of biomass index with the environmental conditions. Acoustic data was collected during Portuguese spring acoustic surveys (PELAGO) over a total of 16,370 hauls from 2000 to 2020 (gap in 2012). We propose a spatiotemporal species distribution model that relies on a two-part model for species presence and biomass under presence, such that the biomass process is defined as the product of these two processes. Environmental information is incorporated with time lags, allowing a set of lags with associated weights to be suggested for each explanatory variable. This approach makes the model more complete and realistic, capable of reducing prediction bias and mitigating outliers in covariates caused by extreme events. In addition, based on the posterior predictive distributions obtained, we propose a method of classifying the occupancy areas by the target species within the study region. This classification provides a quite helpful tool for decision makers aiming at marine sustainability and conservation. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear on-line.