IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/csdana/v52y2008i6p3083-3106.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Maximizing equity market sector predictability in a Bayesian time-varying parameter model

Author

Listed:
  • Johnson, Lorne D.
  • Sakoulis, Georgios

Abstract

The Kalman filter methodology is employed to develop a dynamic sector allocation model for US equities. Bayesian parameter estimation and model selection criteria result in significantly improved sector return predictability over static or rolling parameter specifications. A simple trading strategy illustrates how widely tested financial and economic variables can be used as inputs in for a potentially profitable investment strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Johnson, Lorne D. & Sakoulis, Georgios, 2008. "Maximizing equity market sector predictability in a Bayesian time-varying parameter model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3083-3106, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:52:y:2008:i:6:p:3083-3106
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167-9473(07)00359-3
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martha Douvogiannis & Joel Lander & Athanasios Orphanides, "undated". "Earnings Forecasts and the Predictability of Stock Returns: Evidence from Trading the S&P;," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 10 Dec 2019.
    2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    3. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1325-1360, August.
    4. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. "The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
    5. Lo, Andrew W. & Mackinlay, A. Craig, 1997. "Maximizing Predictability In The Stock And Bond Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 102-134, January.
    6. Turner, Christopher M. & Startz, Richard & Nelson, Charles R., 1989. "A Markov model of heteroskedasticity, risk, and learning in the stock market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-22, November.
    7. Raymond Kan & Chu Zhang, 1999. "Two‐Pass Tests of Asset Pricing Models with Useless Factors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 203-235, February.
    8. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2002. "Market timing and return prediction under model instability," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 495-510, December.
    9. Roll, Richard, 1977. "A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests Part I: On past and potential testability of the theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 129-176, March.
    10. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    11. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    12. Schwert, G William & Seguin, Paul J, 1990. "Heteroskedasticity in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1129-1155, September.
    13. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "A unified approach to nonlinearity, structural change, and outliers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 112-133, March.
    14. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    15. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R, 1989. "The Time-Varying-Parameter Model for Modeling Changing Conditional Variance: The Case of the Lucas Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(4), pages 433-440, October.
    16. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2002. "The Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 637-659, April.
    17. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    18. Wu, Xueping, 2002. "A conditional multifactor analysis of return momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1675-1696, August.
    19. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
    20. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    21. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    22. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. "Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-491, June.
    23. Charles M.C. Lee & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2000. "Price Momentum and Trading Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2017-2069, October.
    24. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    25. Kapetanios, George, 2007. "Variable selection in regression models using nonstandard optimisation of information criteria," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 4-15, September.
    26. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1993. "Sources of Monetary Growth Uncertainty and Economic Activity: The Time-Varying-Parameter Model with Heteroskedastic Disturbances," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 483-492, August.
    27. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    28. Cochrane, John H, 1996. "A Cross-Sectional Test of an Investment-Based Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 572-621, June.
    29. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    30. Quevedo, Jose R. & Bahamonde, Antonio & Luaces, Oscar, 2007. "A simple and efficient method for variable ranking according to their usefulness for learning," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 578-595, September.
    31. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    32. Neykov, N. & Filzmoser, P. & Dimova, R. & Neytchev, P., 2007. "Robust fitting of mixtures using the trimmed likelihood estimator," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 299-308, September.
    33. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    34. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bauwens, Luc & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2012. "On marginal likelihood computation in change-point models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3415-3429.
    2. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2022. "Switching Coefficients or Automatic Variable Selection: An Application in Forecasting Commodity Returns," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-32, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boons, M.F., 2014. "Sorting out commodity and macroeconomic risk in expected stock returns," Other publications TiSEM 1ebdac58-bf37-499d-8835-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    3. Ericsson, Johan & Karlsson, Sune, 2003. "Choosing Factors in a Multifactor Asset Pricing Model: A Bayesian Approach," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 524, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 12 Feb 2004.
    4. Zura Kakushadze, 2015. "Heterotic Risk Models," Papers 1508.04883, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    5. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Statistical Risk Models," Papers 1602.08070, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    6. Zura Kakushadze & Jim Kyung-Soo Liew, 2014. "Custom v. Standardized Risk Models," Papers 1409.2575, arXiv.org, revised May 2015.
    7. Zura Kakushadze, 2014. "4-Factor Model for Overnight Returns," Papers 1410.5513, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.
    8. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Multifactor Risk Models and Heterotic CAPM," Papers 1602.04902, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
    9. Zura Kakushadze & Jim Kyung-Soo Liew, 2015. "Custom v. Standardized Risk Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-27, May.
    10. Zura Kakushadze, 2014. "Russian-Doll Risk Models," Papers 1412.4342, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2017.
    11. Boguth, Oliver & Carlson, Murray & Fisher, Adlai & Simutin, Mikhail, 2011. "Conditional risk and performance evaluation: Volatility timing, overconditioning, and new estimates of momentum alphas," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 363-389.
    12. Bali, Turan G., 2008. "The intertemporal relation between expected returns and risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 101-131, January.
    13. Smith, Daniel R., 2007. "Conditional coskewness and asset pricing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 91-119, January.
    14. Khan, Mozaffar, 2008. "Are accruals mispriced Evidence from tests of an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 55-77, March.
    15. Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2023. "The long-run risk premium in the intertemporal CAPM: International evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    16. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Chen, Xiaoyan & Ling, Xin & Smith, Tom & Zhu, Yushu, 2017. "Research in finance: A review of influential publications and a research agenda," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
    17. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    18. Adrian, Tobias & Franzoni, Francesco, 2009. "Learning about beta: Time-varying factor loadings, expected returns, and the conditional CAPM," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 537-556, September.
    19. Docherty, Paul & Chan, Howard & Easton, Steve, 2013. "Can we treat empirical regularities as state variables in the ICAPM? Evidence from Australia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 107-124.
    20. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:52:y:2008:i:6:p:3083-3106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/csda .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.