IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v133y2020ics0960077920300217.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A new zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis dynamic transmission model with age-structure

Author

Listed:
  • Bi, Kaiming
  • Chen, Yuyang
  • Zhao, Songnian
  • Ben-Arieh, David
  • (John) Wu, Chih-Hang

Abstract

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a fatal, neglected tropical disease primarily caused by Leishmania donovani (L. donovani) and Leishmania infantum (L. infantum). According to VL infectious data reports from severely affected countries, children and teenagers (ages 0–20) have a significantly higher vulnerability to VL infection than other populations. This paper utilizes an infected function (by age) established from epidemic prevalence data to propose a new partial differential equation (PDE) model for infection transmission patterns for various age groups. This new PDE model can be used to study VL epidemics in time and age dimensions. Disease-free and endemic equilibriums are discussed in relation to theoretical stability of the PDE system. This paper also proposes system output adjustment using historical VL data from the World Health Organization. Statistical methods such as the moving average and the autoregressive methods are used to calibrate estimated prevalence trends, potentially minimizing differences between stochastic stimulation results and reported real-world data. Results from simulation experiments using the PDE model were used to predict the worldwide VL severity of the epidemic in the next four years (from 2017 to 2020).

Suggested Citation

  • Bi, Kaiming & Chen, Yuyang & Zhao, Songnian & Ben-Arieh, David & (John) Wu, Chih-Hang, 2020. "A new zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis dynamic transmission model with age-structure," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:133:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920300217
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109622
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920300217
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109622?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Folashade B Agusto & Ibrahim M ELmojtaba, 2017. "Optimal control and cost-effective analysis of malaria/visceral leishmaniasis co-infection," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(2), pages 1-31, February.
    2. Mills,Terence C., 1991. "Time Series Techniques for Economists," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405744, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tengfei Wang & Shaoli Wang & Fei Xu, 2022. "Bistability and Robustness for Virus Infection Models with Nonmonotonic Immune Responses in Viral Infection Systems," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-20, June.
    2. Muntaser Safan & Alhanouf Altheyabi, 2023. "Mathematical Analysis of an Anthroponotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Model with Asymptomatic Infection," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, May.
    3. Rika Amelia & Nursanti Anggriani & Asep K. Supriatna & Noor Istifadah, 2023. "Analysis and Optimal Control of the Tungro Virus Disease Spread Model in Rice Plants by Considering the Characteristics of the Virus, Roguing, and Pesticides," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-14, February.
    4. Carmen Legarreta & Manuel De la Sen & Santiago Alonso-Quesada, 2024. "On the Properties of a Newly Susceptible, Non-Seriously Infected, Hospitalized, and Recovered Subpopulation Epidemic Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-34, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simon DeDeo, 2016. "Conflict and Computation on Wikipedia: A Finite-State Machine Analysis of Editor Interactions," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-23, July.
    2. Nada Kulendran & Kevin K.F. Wong, 2009. "Predicting Quarterly Hong Kong Tourism Demand Growth Rates, Directional Changes and Turning Points with Composite Leading Indicators," Tourism Economics, , vol. 15(2), pages 307-322, June.
    3. Ghosh, M. & Olaniyi, S. & Obabiyi, O.S., 2020. "Mathematical analysis of reinfection and relapse in malaria dynamics," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 373(C).
    4. Jesús Rosel & Jaime Arnau & Pilar Jara, 1998. "Relationship between the Mean and the Constant in a Box–Jenkins Time Series Model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 155-163, May.
    5. Ikechukwu Kelikume, 2014. "Interest Rate Chanel of Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from Nigeria," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 8(4), pages 97-107.
    6. Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K. & Jin, Zhen & Sun, Gui-Quan & Seidu, Baba & Yankson, Ernest & Abidemi, Afeez & Oduro, F.T. & Moore, Stephen E. & Okyere, Eric, 2021. "Sensitivity assessment and optimal economic evaluation of a new COVID-19 compartmental epidemic model with control interventions," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    7. Abdelbar El Mansouri & Bouchaib Khajji & Abderrahim Labzai & Mohamed Belam, 2024. "Optimal Control in a Mathematical Model for the Occurrence of Electronic Cheating in Certification Exams; Baccalaureate Exams in Morocco as an Example," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 1-25, December.
    8. Aldila, Dipo, 2020. "Analyzing the impact of the media campaign and rapid testing for COVID-19 as an optimal control problem in East Java, Indonesia," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    9. Bate He & Eisuke Kita, 2021. "The Application of Sequential Generative Adversarial Networks for Stock Price Prediction," The Review of Socionetwork Strategies, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 455-470, November.
    10. Lami, Endrit & Imami, Drini & Pugh, Geoffrey & Hashi, Iraj, 2021. "Fiscal performance and elections in the context of a transition economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    11. Zihao Zhang & Bryan Lim & Stefan Zohren, 2021. "Deep Learning for Market by Order Data," Papers 2102.08811, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    12. Pourghorban, Mojtaba & Mamipour, Siab, 2020. "Modeling and Forecasting the Electricity Price in Iran Using Wavelet-Based GARCH Model," MPRA Paper 115042, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Benjamin Adelwini Bugri & Appiah Michael & School of Management Science & Engineering Department of Finance & Economics Jiangsu University Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, China & Emmanuel Awusi Arthur, 2019. "Investigating the Impact of Sustainable Procurement on Economic Growth and Development," Journal of Accounting, Business and Finance Research, Scientific Publishing Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 67-76.
    14. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2017. "Forward Guidance, Pros, Cons and Credibility," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(5), pages 523-541.
    15. Nenad Njegovan, 2005. "A leading indicator approach to predicting short-term shifts in demand for business travel by air to and from the UK," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 421-432.
    16. Lami, Endrit & Imami, Drini & Kächelein, Holger, 2016. "Fuelling political fiscal cycles by opportunistic privatization in transition economies: The case of Albania," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 220-231.
    17. Orlando, Giuseppe, 2022. "Simulating heterogeneous corporate dynamics via the Rulkov map," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 32-42.
    18. Endrit Lami, 2023. "Political Budget Cycles in the Context of a Transition Economy: The Case of Albania," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(2), pages 221-262, June.
    19. Imami, Drini & Lami, Endrit & Pojani, Dorina, 2022. "Informal construction as political currency: A theory of ‘election-driven informality’," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    20. Berhe, Hailay Weldegiorgis, 2020. "Optimal Control Strategies and Cost-effectiveness Analysis Applied to Real Data of Cholera Outbreak in Ethiopia’s Oromia Region," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:133:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920300217. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.