IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/openec/v34y2023i3d10.1007_s11079-022-09698-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transforming East Asia: Regional Integration in a Trade War Era

Author

Listed:
  • Karen Jackson

    (University of Westminster)

  • Oleksandr Shepotylo

    (Aston University)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the trade and welfare implications of further East Asian trade integration, through the signing of the China-Japan-Korea FTA, and continued trade tensions between the US and China. Our analysis uses a structural gravity approach to explore the effects of these cooperative and non-cooperative trade policies. Our key findings are: (i) for China, the FTA can compensate for continued trade tensions (ii) in terms of the FTA and for the members involved, reductions in tariffs are expected to lead to larger welfare gains compared to those from lower NTBs (iii) for the members involved, a deeper agreement will be more welfare enhancing. Overall, East Asian integration appears to be a more appealing prospect in light of tensions with the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Karen Jackson & Oleksandr Shepotylo, 2023. "Transforming East Asia: Regional Integration in a Trade War Era," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 657-672, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:34:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11079-022-09698-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-022-09698-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11079-022-09698-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11079-022-09698-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James E. Anderson & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2015. "Growth and Trade with Frictions: A Structural Estimation Framework," CESifo Working Paper Series 5446, CESifo.
    2. James E. Anderson & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2018. "GEPPML: General equilibrium analysis with PPML," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(10), pages 2750-2782, October.
    3. Egger, Peter & Larch, Mario, 2008. "Interdependent preferential trade agreement memberships: An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 384-399, December.
    4. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    5. Fally, Thibault, 2015. "Structural gravity and fixed effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 76-85.
    6. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry & Ries, John, 2010. "The erosion of colonial trade linkages after independence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 1-14, May.
    7. Jackson, Karen & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2021. "Belt and road: The China dream?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    8. Yoto Yotov & Mario Larch & James Anderson, 2015. "Growth and Trade: A Structural Estimation Framework," 2015 Meeting Papers 851, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer, 2020. "East Asia Decouples from the United States: Trade War, COVID-19, and East Asia's New Trade Blocs," Working Paper Series WP20-09, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    10. Sergio Correia & Paulo Guimarães & Tom Zylkin, 2020. "Fast Poisson estimation with high-dimensional fixed effects," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 20(1), pages 95-115, March.
    11. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro, 2015. "Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 1-44.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jackson, Karen & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2021. "Belt and road: The China dream?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    2. Fontagné, Lionel & Santoni, Gianluca, 2021. "GVCs and the endogenous geography of RTAs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    3. Karen Jackson & Oleksandr Shepotylo, 2021. "An examination of EU trade disintegration scenarios," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 2-20, January.
    4. Larch, Mario & Wanner, Joschka, 2017. "Carbon tariffs: An analysis of the trade, welfare, and emission effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 195-213.
    5. Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the energy and mining sectors," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1038-1063, July.
    6. Jackson, Karen & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2018. "Post-Brexit trade survival: Looking beyond the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 317-328.
    7. Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & Jordi Paniagua, 2021. "Has the Euro paid off? A study of the trade-induced welfare effects of the EMU," Working Papers 2103, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    8. Julian Hinz, 2023. "The ties that bind: geopolitical motivations for economic integration," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(1), pages 51-100, February.
    9. Larch, Mario & Löning, Markus & Wanner, Joschka, 2018. "Can degrowth overcome the leakage problem of unilateral climate policy?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 118-130.
    10. repec:wsr:ecbook:2021:i:vii-006 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Fontagné, Lionel & Guimbard, Houssein & Orefice, Gianluca, 2022. "Tariff-based product-level trade elasticities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    12. Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "Short run gravity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    13. Rebecca Freeman & Mario Larch & Angelos Theodorakopoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "Unlocking New Methods to Estimate Country-Specific Trade Costs and Trade Elasticities," CESifo Working Paper Series 9432, CESifo.
    14. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Yotov, Yoto V., 2021. "From theory to policy with gravitas: A solution to the mystery of the excess trade balances," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    15. Kohler Wilhelm & Jung Benjamin, 2017. "Wie vorteilhaft ist internationaler Handel?: Ein neuer Ansatz zur Vermessung der Gewinne," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 32-55, April.
    16. Heid, Benedikt & Stähler, Frank, 2024. "Structural gravity and the gains from trade under imperfect competition: Quantifying the effects of the European Single Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    17. Rindler, Michael, 2021. "Changing Language Skills and Trade in Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242449, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Fabien Candau & Geoffroy Guepie & Reine Kouakou, 2018. "In Gravity no Veritas: Dubious Trade Elasticiy and Weak Effects of Regional Trade Agreements in Africa," Working Papers hal-02625930, HAL.
    19. Oliver Reiter & Robert Stehrer, 2018. "Trade Policies and Integration of the Western Balkans," wiiw Working Papers 148, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    20. Elisabeth Christen & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Christian Glocker & Harald Oberhofer, 2016. "Austria 2025 – Austria's Competitiveness and Export Potentials in Selected Markets," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 59182.
    21. Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2016. "General Equilibrium Trade Policy Analysis with Structural Gravity," CESifo Working Paper Series 6020, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gravity model; China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement; China-US trade war;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:34:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11079-022-09698-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.