IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chieco/v60y2020ics1043951x19301543.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Upward mobility and the demand for children: Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Xiaojun
  • Wen, Qiang
  • Ma, Jie
  • Li, Jun

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate a new determinant of the demand for children: upward mobility. Upward mobility can affect the demand for children in two opposite directions: upward mobility means more resources to spend on childbearing and increases the demand for children; it also lowers the need to rely on children for old-age support and this leads to lower demand for children. In this paper, we use the difference between the subject's self-evaluations of the future and current social class as the measure of upward mobility, and fertility desire to represent the demand for children. Using the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) data, we find that upward mobility significantly increases the demand for children, and the results are robust across various model specifications (pooled data regression, Poisson regression, and IV regression). The effect is concentrated among affluent and/or urban households, suggesting that those from more advantaged social-economic backgrounds appear to have a higher elasticity of fertility in response to upward mobility. Our results imply that improving upward mobility and public services such as education, health care, and social security would be effective to boost fertility in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Xiaojun & Wen, Qiang & Ma, Jie & Li, Jun, 2020. "Upward mobility and the demand for children: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:60:y:2020:i:c:s1043951x19301543
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2019.101393
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X19301543
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chieco.2019.101393?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arnaud Chevalier & Colm Harmon & Vincent O’ Sullivan & Ian Walker, 2013. "The impact of parental income and education on the schooling of their children," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-22, December.
    2. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    3. Michele BOLDRIN & Mariacristina DE NARDI & Larry E. JONES, 2015. "Fertility and Social Security," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(3), pages 261-299, September.
    4. Kanbur, Ravi & Wang, Yue & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2021. "The great Chinese inequality turnaround," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 467-482.
    5. Emily Oster, 2019. "Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 187-204, April.
    6. Honge Gong & Andrew Leigh & Xin Meng, 2012. "Intergenerational Income Mobility In Urban China," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 58(3), pages 481-503, September.
    7. Alesina, Alberto & Di Tella, Rafael & MacCulloch, Robert, 2004. "Inequality and happiness: are Europeans and Americans different?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 2009-2042, August.
    8. repec:cup:jdemec:v:81:y:2015:i:03:p:261-299_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Roland Benabou & Efe A. Ok, 2001. "Social Mobility and the Demand for Redistribution: The Poum Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(2), pages 447-487.
    10. Sarah R. Hayford & Victor Agadjanian, 2012. "From desires to behavior," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 26(20), pages 511-542.
    11. repec:zbw:bofitp:2017_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Schultz, T. Paul, 2005. "Fertility and Income," Center Discussion Papers 28500, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    13. Gary S. Becker & H. Gregg Lewis, 1974. "Interaction between Quantity and Quality of Children," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital, pages 81-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Ronald Freedman & Albert Hermalin & Ming-Cheng Chang, 1975. "Do statements about desired family size predict fertility? the case of Taiwan, 1967–1970," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 12(3), pages 407-416, August.
    15. Elaina Rose, 1999. "Consumption Smoothing and Excess Female Mortality in Rural India," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(1), pages 41-49, February.
    16. Reagan Baughman & Stacy Dickert-Conlin, 2009. "The earned income tax credit and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 22(3), pages 537-563, July.
    17. Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2007. "Social Security and Demographic Trends: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(1), pages 55-77, January.
    18. Lonnie W. Aarssen, 2005. "Why Is Fertility Lower in Wealthier Countries? The Role of Relaxed Fertility‐Selection," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 31(1), pages 113-126, March.
    19. Cojocaru, Alexandru, 2014. "Prospects of upward mobility and preferences for redistribution: Evidence from the Life in Transition Survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 300-314.
    20. Robert Jensen & Emily Oster, 2009. "The Power of TV: Cable Television and Women's Status in India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(3), pages 1057-1094.
    21. Schultz, T Paul, 1985. "Changing World Prices, Women's Wages, and the Fertility Transition: Sweden, 1860-1910," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(6), pages 1126-1154, December.
    22. Charles Hohm, 1975. "Social security and fertility: An international perspective," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 12(4), pages 629-644, November.
    23. Raj Chetty & Nathaniel Hendren & Patrick Kline & Emmanuel Saez, 2014. "Where is the land of Opportunity? The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(4), pages 1553-1623.
    24. Hongbin Li & Junjian Yi & Junsen Zhang, 2011. "Estimating the Effect of the One-Child Policy on the Sex Ratio Imbalance in China: Identification Based on the Difference-in-Differences," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(4), pages 1535-1557, November.
    25. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Chevalier, Arnaud & Harmon, Colm & O'Sullivan, Vincent & Walker, Ian, 2013. "The Impact of Parental Income and Education on the Schooling of Children," Papers WP468, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    27. Gordon B. Dahl & Enrico Moretti, 2008. "The Demand for Sons," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(4), pages 1085-1120.
    28. Qiao, Xue & Wang, Lili, 2019. "Fertility and old-age labor supply in aging China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    29. Andrews,Donald W. K. & Stock,James H. (ed.), 2005. "Identification and Inference for Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844413, October.
    30. Nancy Qian, 2008. "Missing Women and the Price of Tea in China: The Effect of Sex-Specific Earnings on Sex Imbalance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(3), pages 1251-1285.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shao, Shuai & Tian, Zhihua & Zhang, Yan & Li, Baoli, 2023. "The housing status and two-child fertility willingness of floating population: Evidence from the Chinese General Social Survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 247-266.
    2. Nan Zhao & Wanqing Liao & Jun Xia & Zizhe Zhang, 2023. "The effect of intergenerational mobility on family education investment: evidence from China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Quan, Ji & Shi, Yuang & Wang, Xianjia, 2023. "Effect of fairness-based sympathy and retaliation on cooperation in multi-player dilemma games," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 449(C).
    4. Wang, Li & Liu, Lihua & Dai, Yunhao, 2021. "Owning your future: Entrepreneurship and the prospects of upward mobility in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    5. Huang, Xiao & Huang, Shoujun & Shui, Ailun, 2021. "Government spending and intergenerational income mobility: Evidence from China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 387-414.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Filoso, Valerio & Papagni, Erasmo, 2015. "Fertility choice and financial development," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 160-177.
    2. Bloom, D.E. & Luca, D.L., 2016. "The Global Demography of Aging," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 3-56, Elsevier.
    3. Sonia Bhalotra & Abhishek Chakravarty & Dilip Mookherjee & Francisco J. Pino, 2019. "Property Rights and Gender Bias: Evidence from Land Reform in West Bengal," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 205-237, April.
    4. Do, Quy-Toan & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Raddatz, Claudio, 2016. "Comparative advantage, international trade, and fertility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 48-66.
    5. Abel Brodeur & Lamis Kattan, 2022. "World War II, the Baby Boom, and Employment: County-Level Evidence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(2), pages 437-471.
    6. Robert Fenge & Beatrice Scheubel, 2017. "Pensions and fertility: back to the roots," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 93-139, January.
    7. Onur Altindag, 2016. "Son Preference, Fertility Decline, and the Nonmissing Girls of Turkey," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(2), pages 541-566, April.
    8. Natalie Malak & Md Mahbubur Rahman & Terry A. Yip, 2019. "Baby bonus, anyone? Examining heterogeneous responses to a pro-natalist policy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 1205-1246, October.
    9. Bao, Xiaojia & Galiani, Sebastian & Li, Kai & Long, Cheryl Xiaoning, 2023. "Where have all the children gone? An empirical study of child abandonment and abduction in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 95-119.
    10. Bishnu, Monisankar & Garg, Shresth & Garg, Tishara & Ray, Tridip, 2023. "Intergenerational transfers: Public education and pensions with endogenous fertility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    11. Wang, Li & Liu, Lihua & Dai, Yunhao, 2021. "Owning your future: Entrepreneurship and the prospects of upward mobility in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    12. Alexander Stimpfle & David Stadelmann, 2016. "Does Central Europe Import the Missing Women Phenomenon?," CREMA Working Paper Series 2016-04, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    13. Francesco C. Billari & Vincenzo Galasso, 2014. "Fertility decisions and pension reforms. Evidence from natural experiments in Italy," IdEP Economic Papers 1403, USI Università della Svizzera italiana.
    14. Chalfin, Aaron & Deza, Monica, 2019. "The intergenerational effects of education on delinquency," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 553-571.
    15. Eleanor Jawon Choi & Jisoo Hwang, 2020. "Transition of Son Preference: Evidence From South Korea," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(2), pages 627-652, April.
    16. Jakob Madsen & Holger Strulik, 2023. "Testing unified growth theory: Technological progress and the child quantity‐quality tradeoff," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), pages 235-275, January.
    17. Dan A. Black & Natalia Kolesnikova & Seth G. Sanders & Lowell J. Taylor, 2013. "Are Children “Normal”?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 21-33, March.
    18. Samuel Marden, 2016. "Family Size and the Demand for Sex Selection: Evidence From China," Working Paper Series 9016, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
    19. Helmut Rainer & Geethanjali Selvaretnam & David Ulph, 2011. "Assisted reproductive technologies (ART) in a model of fertility choice," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(3), pages 1101-1132, July.
    20. Astghik Mavisakalyan & Anna Minasyan, 2023. "The Role of Conflict in Sex Discrimination: The Case of Missing Girls," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(2), pages 443-484.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:60:y:2020:i:c:s1043951x19301543. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.