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Analyst Conflicts and Research Quality

Author

Listed:
  • Anup Agrawal

    (Culverhouse College of Business, University of Alabama Tuscaloosa, AL 35487-0224, USA)

  • Mark A. Chen

    (Department of Finance, Robinson College of Business, Georgia State University Atlanta, GA 30303-3083, USA)

Abstract

This paper examines whether the quality of stock analysts' forecasts is related to conflicts of interest from their employers' investment banking (IB) and brokerage businesses. We consider four aspects of forecast quality: accuracy, bias, and revision frequency of quarterly earnings per share (EPS) forecasts and relative optimism in long-term earnings growth (LTG) forecasts. Using a unique dataset that contains the annual revenue breakdown of analysts' employers among IB, brokerage, and other businesses, we uncover two main findings. First, accuracy and bias in quarterly EPS forecasts appear to be unrelated to conflict magnitudes after controlling for forecast age, firm resources, and analyst characteristics. Second, relative optimism in LTG forecasts and the revision frequency of quarterly EPS forecasts are positively related to the importance of brokerage business to analysts' employers. Additional tests suggest that the frequency of quarterly forecast revisions is positively related to analysts' trade generation incentives. Our findings suggest that reputation concerns keep analysts honest with respect to short-term earnings forecasts but not LTG forecasts. In addition, conflicts from brokerage appear to play a more important role in shaping analysts' forecasting behavior than has been previously recognized.

Suggested Citation

  • Anup Agrawal & Mark A. Chen, 2012. "Analyst Conflicts and Research Quality," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 1-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:qjfxxx:v:02:y:2012:i:02:n:s2010139212500103
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010139212500103
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Galanti, Sébastien & Vaubourg, Anne Gaël, 2017. "Optimism bias in financial analysts' earnings forecasts: Do commissions sharing agreements reduce conflicts of interest?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 325-337.
    2. Zhao, Chen & Li, Yubin & Govindaraj, Suresh & Zhong, Zhaodong (Ken), 2022. "CDS trading and analyst optimism," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4).
    3. Lorenzo Casavecchia & Gerhard Hambusch & Justin Hitchen, 2022. "The impact of analyst forecast errors on fundamental indexation: the Australian evidence," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(5), pages 400-418, September.
    4. Liu, Qigui & Chi, Wenqiang & Wang, Junyi, 2024. "How informative is question-and-answer similarity to financial analysts? Evidence from Chinese earnings communication conferences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    5. Andrea Buraschi & Paul Whelan, 2022. "Speculation, Sentiment, and Interest Rates," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(3), pages 2308-2329, March.
    6. Chan, Chia Ying & Lo, Huai-Chun & Yang, Ming Jing, 2016. "The revision frequency of earnings forecasts and firm characteristics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 116-132.
    7. Hu, Jun & Long, Wenbin & Luo, Le & Peng, Yuanhuai, 2021. "Share pledging and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Minzhi Wu & Mark Wilson & Yi Wu, 2017. "Was the Global Settlement Effective in Mitigating Systematic Bias in Affiliated Analyst Recommendations?," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 485-503, December.
    9. Zhang, Chaolin & Yu, Fangbo, 2024. "Can local fintech development improve analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy? Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    10. Prokop, Jörg & Kammann, Benno, 2018. "The effect of the European Markets in Financial Instruments Directive on affiliated analysts’ earnings forecast optimism," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 75-86.
    11. Tiana Lehmer & Ben Lourie & Devin Shanthikumar, 2022. "Brokerage trading volume and analysts’ earnings forecasts: a conflict of interest?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 441-476, June.
    12. Lim, Youngdeok & Kim, Hyungtae, 2019. "Market reaction to optimistic bias in the recommendations of chaebol-affiliated analysts," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 224-242.
    13. He, Feng & Ma, Yaming, 2019. "Do political connections decrease the accuracy of stock analysts' recommendations in the Chinese stock market?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 59-72.
    14. Prem G. Mathew & H. Semih Yildirim, 2015. "Does director affiliation lead to analyst bias?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(3), pages 272-287, January.
    15. Jeremy Burke & Angela A. Hung & Jack Clift & Steven Garber & Joanne K. Yoong, 2015. "Impacts of Conflicts of Interest in the Financial Services Industry," Working Papers WR-1076, RAND Corporation.
    16. Dambra, Michael & Field, Laura Casares & Gustafson, Matthew T. & Pisciotta, Kevin, 2018. "The consequences to analyst involvement in the IPO process: Evidence surrounding the JOBS Act," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 302-330.

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