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A Simultaneous Equations Analysis of Analysts’ Forecast Bias, Analyst Following, and Institutional Ownership

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  • Lucy F. Ackert
  • George Athanassakos

Abstract

In this paper we use a simultaneous equations model to examine the relationship between analysts’ forecasts, analyst following, and institutions’ investment decisions. Estimates of our three equation model using US data indicate that higher institutional demand leads to greater optimism among analysts and lower analyst following. At the same time, institutional demand increases with increasing optimism in analysts’ forecasts but decreases with analyst following. We also investigate firm characteristics as determinants of analysts’ and institutions’ decisions. Empirical estimates of the effects of these characteristics indicate that agency‐driven behavioral considerations are significant.

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  • Lucy F. Ackert & George Athanassakos, 2003. "A Simultaneous Equations Analysis of Analysts’ Forecast Bias, Analyst Following, and Institutional Ownership," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(7‐8), pages 1017-1042, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:30:y:2003:i:7-8:p:1017-1042
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-5957.05452
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    4. Anna M. Cianci & Satoris S. Culbertson, 2010. "The Impact of Motivational and Cognitive Factors on Optimistic Earnings Forecasts," Chapters, in: Brian Bruce (ed.), Handbook of Behavioral Finance, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Craig W. Holden & Pamela S. Stuerke, 2008. "The Frequency of Financial Analysts' Forecast Revisions: Theory and Evidence about Determinants of Demand for Predisclosure Information," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7‐8), pages 860-888, September.
    6. García-Meca, Emma & Sánchez-Ballesta, Juan P., 2011. "Ownership structure and forecast accuracy in Spain," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 73-82.
    7. Miran Hossain & Benjamin A. Jansen & Jon Taylor, 2020. "Do Analysts Cater to Investor Information Demand?," Working Papers 202003, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
    8. Muhammad Sajjad Hussain & Muhammad Muhaizam Bin Musa Musa & Abdelnaser Omran Ali, 2018. "The Impact of Private Ownership Structure on Risk Taking by Pakistani Banks: An Empirical Study AbstractThe financial crisis of 2007-09 was converted the focus of researchers and regulators toward ban," Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 6(3), pages :325-337, September.
    9. Muriel Fadairo & Cintya Lanchimba, 2012. "Performance in distribution systems : What is the influence of the upstream firm's organizational choices ?," Working Papers halshs-00727382, HAL.
    10. Barry, Thierno Amadou & Lepetit, Laetitia & Tarazi, Amine, 2011. "Ownership structure and risk in publicly held and privately owned banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1327-1340, May.
    11. Susana Yu & Kishore Tandon & Gwendolyn Webb, 2010. "The Effects of Option Introduction on Analyst Coverage and Earnings Estimates," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 55(2), pages 46-66, November.
    12. Stavros Peristiani & Vanessa Savino, 2011. "Are credit default swaps associated with higher corporate defaults?," Staff Reports 494, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Kyoungwon Mo & Kyung Jin Park & YoungJin Kim, 2019. "The Role of Institutional Investors in the Sustainable CEO Compensation Structure," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-21, October.
    14. Ho, Joanna & Huang, Cheng Jen & Karuna, Christo, 2020. "Large shareholder ownership types and board governance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. Tristan Roger, 2018. "The coverage assignments of financial analysts," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 651-673, September.
    16. Farid Radmehr & Tolga Cenesizoglu, 2019. "The Causal Effect of Institutional Ownership on Firm Level Risk Characteristics," Cahiers de recherche / Working Papers 2, Institut sur la retraite et l'épargne / Retirement and Savings Institute.
    17. How, Janice & Verhoeven, Peter & Abdul Wahab, Effiezal Aswadi, 2014. "Institutional investors, political connections and analyst following in Malaysia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 158-167.
    18. Muriel Fadairo & Cintya Lanchimba Lopez, 2012. "Performance in distribution systems : What is the influence of the upstream firm’s organizational choices ?," Working Papers 1224, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    19. Young K. Park & Kee H. Chung, 2007. "Foreign and Local Institutional Ownership and the Speed of Price Adjustment," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(9‐10), pages 1569-1595, November.
    20. Hu, Jun & Long, Wenbin & Luo, Le & Peng, Yuanhuai, 2021. "Share pledging and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    21. Vasiliki Athanasakou & George Athanassakos, 2019. "Earnings Quality and Book-to-Market in the Cross Section of Expected Returns," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 23(3-4), pages 169-210, September.
    22. Thomas Jeanjean & Hervé Stolowy & Michael Erkens, 2010. "Really “Lost in translation”? The economic consequences of issuing an annual report in English," Post-Print hal-00479511, HAL.
    23. Xu Cheng & Dongmin Kong & Xinwei Zheng & Qi Tang, 2022. "Do foreign investors crowd out sell‐side analysts? Evidence from China," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 815-834, November.
    24. Guney, Yilmaz & Karpuz, Ahmet & Komba, Gabriel, 2020. "The effects of board structure on corporate performance: Evidence from East African frontier markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    25. Zhao, Chen & Li, Yubin & Govindaraj, Suresh & Zhong, Zhaodong (Ken), 2022. "CDS trading and analyst optimism," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4).

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