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The determinants of Australian household debt: A macro level study

Author

Listed:
  • Meng, Xianming
  • Hoang, Nam T.
  • Siriwardana, Mahinda

Abstract

This paper employs a cointegrated Vector Autoregression (CVAR) model to explore the determinants of Australian household debt. The results show that housing prices, GDP and the population in the economy have a positive effect on household borrowing. Meanwhile, interest rates, the unemployment rate, the number of new dwellings and inflation are found to have a negative effect on Australian household debt. Of these, interest rates are the most significant. Based on these results, it is judicious to rein in household debt during economic booms through monitoring and intervening in the assets market and using monetary policy in a timely, comprehensive, and careful manner.

Suggested Citation

  • Meng, Xianming & Hoang, Nam T. & Siriwardana, Mahinda, 2013. "The determinants of Australian household debt: A macro level study," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 80-90.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:29:y:2013:i:c:p:80-90
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2013.08.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sebastian Barnes & Garry Young, 2003. "The rise in US household debt: assessing its causes and sustainability," Bank of England working papers 206, Bank of England.
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    4. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Financial liberalisation, consumption and debt in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-22, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    5. Merxe Tudela & Garry Young, 2005. "The determinants of household debt and balance sheets in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 266, Bank of England.
    6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
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    8. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    9. Nuno C. Martins & Ernesto Villanueva, 2003. "The impact of interest-rate subsidies on long-term household debt: Evidence from a large program," Economics Working Papers 713, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    10. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Australian household debt; Cointegrated VAR modelling; Housing market; Housing prices; Interest rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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