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Crude oil and natural gas supplies and demands up to the year 2010 for France

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  • Mackay, R. M.
  • Probert, S. D.

Abstract

A novel technique for forecasting the supply and extraction life-cycle of a depleting fossil fuel resource has been developed. The supply side utilises a [`]skewed-normal production-profile' model that yields a better representation than earlier approaches. A simple model for extrapolating crude oil and natural gas demands has also been devised, based on the so called [`]modified logit function'. The predicted crude oil and natural gas balances for the period up to 2010 indicate the disparity between indigenous production and future consumption for France. These forecasts depend on current estimates of remaining oil and gas reserves. It will consequently be necessary to revise periodically the present projections as more reliable reserve estimates become available.

Suggested Citation

  • Mackay, R. M. & Probert, S. D., 1995. "Crude oil and natural gas supplies and demands up to the year 2010 for France," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 185-208.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:50:y:1995:i:3:p:185-208
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mackay, R.M. & Probert, S.D., 1994. "Skewed-normal production-profile model and reverse-projection technique for resource and supply predictions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 343-367.
    2. Mackay, R.M. & Probert, S.D., 1994. "Modified logit-function demand model for predicting national crude-oil and natural-gas consumptions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-90.
    3. Mackay, R.M. & Probert, S.D., 1994. "Crude-oil and natural-gas supplies and demands up to ad 2010 for the unified germany," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 255-274.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hafezi, Reza & Akhavan, AmirNaser & Pakseresht, Saeed & A. Wood, David, 2021. "Global natural gas demand to 2025: A learning scenario development model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    2. Reza Hafezi & Amir Naser Akhavan & Mazdak Zamani & Saeed Pakseresht & Shahaboddin Shamshirband, 2019. "Developing a Data Mining Based Model to Extract Predictor Factors in Energy Systems: Application of Global Natural Gas Demand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-22, October.
    3. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    4. Mackay, R. M. & Probert, S. D., 1995. "Crude oil and natural gas supplies and demands for Denmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 209-232.
    5. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    6. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng, 2011. "Are shocks to commodity prices persistent?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 409-416, January.
    7. Maïzi, Nadia & Assoumou, Edi, 2014. "Future prospects for nuclear power in France," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 849-859.
    8. Sutrisno, Aziiz & Nomaler, Ӧnder & Alkemade, Floor, 2021. "Has the global expansion of energy markets truly improved energy security?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PA).
    9. Özge Dilaver & Zafer Dilaver & Lester C Hunt, 2013. "What Drives Natural Gas Consumption in Europe? Analysis and Projections," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 143, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    10. Berk, Istemi & Ediger, Volkan Ş., 2016. "Forecasting the coal production: Hubbert curve application on Turkey's lignite fields," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 193-203.

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