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Modified logit-function demand model for predicting national crude-oil and natural-gas consumptions

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  • Mackay, R.M.
  • Probert, S.D.

Abstract

This paper presents a novel approach to demand forecasting for both crude oil and natural gas: it can be applied with confidence for any country that is politically and economically stable. However, because of these uncertainties and social factors, it is often difficult to formulate a wise policy concerning long-term energy requirements. None the less, there is a need for each country to formulate a sustainable energy strategy. Thus it is desirable to be able to predict accurately future demand requirements for crude oil and natural gas, and so a mathematical model has been developed that can be used with readily-available standard data: it is referred to as the [`]modified logit-function demand model'. It is based on saturation curve extrapolations for the appropriate energy intensity (i.e. fuel consumption/GDP), population and GDP/capita. When new input data become available, revised and hence improved projected-demand estimates can be derived readily.

Suggested Citation

  • Mackay, R.M. & Probert, S.D., 1994. "Modified logit-function demand model for predicting national crude-oil and natural-gas consumptions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-90.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:49:y:1994:i:1:p:75-90
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    Cited by:

    1. Jebaraj, S. & Iniyan, S., 2006. "A review of energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 281-311, August.
    2. Kumar, Ujjwal & Jain, V.K., 2010. "Time series models (Grey-Markov, Grey Model with rolling mechanism and singular spectrum analysis) to forecast energy consumption in India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1709-1716.
    3. Mackay, R. M. & Probert, S. D., 1995. "Crude oil and natural gas supplies and demands for Denmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 209-232.
    4. Mackay, R. M. & Probert, S. D., 1995. "Crude oil and natural gas supplies and demands up to the year 2010 for France," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 185-208.

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