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Skewed-normal production-profile model and reverse-projection technique for resource and supply predictions

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  • Mackay, R.M.
  • Probert, S.D.

Abstract

This paper discusses a unique approach to the mathematical modelling of the extraction life-cycle of any depleting fossil-fuel resource and is applied to crude-oil and natural-gas production. The skewed-normal production-profile (i.e. production rate versus time) model, (i) yields a better representation than can be achieved with earlier approaches, and (ii) is appropriate for use with production data that rise quickly with time to a peak and then slowly decline, but is unsatisfactory for use when the profile exhibits more than one peak. In many circumstances the profile is less systematatic in shape, often as a result of temporary political, economic or on-stream factors. Under such circumstances, it is suggested that the skewed-normal production-profile (SNPP) model be used in conjunction with the reverse-projection (RP) technique. The application of the model, without and with a reverse projection through the data, is demonstrated briefly using UK crude-oil and natural-gas production rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Mackay, R.M. & Probert, S.D., 1994. "Skewed-normal production-profile model and reverse-projection technique for resource and supply predictions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 343-367.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:49:y:1994:i:4:p:343-367
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    Cited by:

    1. Semenychev, V.K. & Kurkin, E.I. & Semenychev, E.V., 2014. "Modelling and forecasting the trends of life cycle curves in the production of non-renewable resources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 244-251.
    2. Mackay, R. M. & Probert, S. D., 1995. "Crude oil and natural gas supplies and demands for Denmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 209-232.
    3. Mackay, R. M. & Probert, S. D., 1995. "Crude oil and natural gas supplies and demands up to the year 2010 for France," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 185-208.

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