IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v339y2023ics0306261923003446.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short- and long-term forecasting for building energy consumption considering IPMVP recommendations, WEO and COP27 scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • dos Santos Ferreira, Greicili
  • Martins dos Santos, Deilson
  • Luciano Avila, Sérgio
  • Viana Luiz Albani, Vinicius
  • Cardoso Orsi, Gustavo
  • Cesar Cordeiro Vieira, Pedro
  • Nilson Rodrigues, Rafael

Abstract

Understanding and predicting power consumption behavior helps estimate costs, seek actions to save energy and plan affirmative actions that raise people's awareness. Organized civil society has made efforts in this context. Our contribution is a framework that first extracts knowledge about consumption through an extensive time series analysis of the building under study. Proper acquisition of meteorological (e. g. dry bulb temperature, humidity, solar radiation, and precipitation) and power consumption data are discussed. The correlation between these time series is verified, which develops knowledge about the problem. We believe forecasts will be more reliable using accurate models with more knowledge. Afterward, we forecast for the short-term period (hour, day and month-ahead) and long-term period (2030 and 2050), considering the scenarios proposed by the World Energy Outlook (WEO-2022) and Convention on Climate Change (COP27). Acquisition, processing, data analysis, as well as predictions, each framework step follows the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol (IPMVP-2022) recommendations. Building energy consumption forecasts considering IPMVP, WEO, and COP27 scenarios are originals in the literature. IEEE rigor for load measurement and modeling is achieved. Our study also follows the ISO:50000 energy efficiency purposes. The analysis and forecasting use data from a public building with an approximate circulation of 5,000 people per day. The objective is to contribute to a better understanding of building engineering to structure energy management actions. As stated at COP27: enough greenwashing talk, let us move on to smart actions.

Suggested Citation

  • dos Santos Ferreira, Greicili & Martins dos Santos, Deilson & Luciano Avila, Sérgio & Viana Luiz Albani, Vinicius & Cardoso Orsi, Gustavo & Cesar Cordeiro Vieira, Pedro & Nilson Rodrigues, Rafael, 2023. "Short- and long-term forecasting for building energy consumption considering IPMVP recommendations, WEO and COP27 scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:339:y:2023:i:c:s0306261923003446
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.120980
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261923003446
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.120980?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Somu, Nivethitha & M R, Gauthama Raman & Ramamritham, Krithi, 2020. "A hybrid model for building energy consumption forecasting using long short term memory networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    2. Germán Ramos Ruiz & Carlos Fernández Bandera, 2017. "Validation of Calibrated Energy Models: Common Errors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-19, October.
    3. Lü, Xiaoshu & Lu, Tao & Kibert, Charles J. & Viljanen, Martti, 2015. "Modeling and forecasting energy consumption for heterogeneous buildings using a physical–statistical approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 261-275.
    4. Lee, Soo-Jin & Song, Seung-Yeong, 2022. "Time-series analysis of the effects of building and household features on residential end-use energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    5. Ping-Huan Kuo & Chiou-Jye Huang, 2018. "A High Precision Artificial Neural Networks Model for Short-Term Energy Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, January.
    6. Ludovica Maria Campagna & Francesco Fiorito, 2022. "On the Impact of Climate Change on Building Energy Consumptions: A Meta-Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-35, January.
    7. Michal Pavlicko & Mária Vojteková & Oľga Blažeková, 2022. "Forecasting of Electrical Energy Consumption in Slovakia," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-20, February.
    8. Baak, M. & Koopman, R. & Snoek, H. & Klous, S., 2020. "A new correlation coefficient between categorical, ordinal and interval variables with Pearson characteristics," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    9. Marcelo C. Medeiros & Gabriel F. R. Vasconcelos & Álvaro Veiga & Eduardo Zilberman, 2021. "Forecasting Inflation in a Data-Rich Environment: The Benefits of Machine Learning Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 98-119, January.
    10. Andrews, Abigail & Jain, Rishee K., 2022. "Beyond Energy Efficiency: A clustering approach to embed demand flexibility into building energy benchmarking," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
    11. Olamide Jogunola & Bamidele Adebisi & Khoa Van Hoang & Yakubu Tsado & Segun I. Popoola & Mohammad Hammoudeh & Raheel Nawaz, 2022. "CBLSTM-AE: A Hybrid Deep Learning Framework for Predicting Energy Consumption," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-16, January.
    12. Zhou, Xinlei & Lin, Wenye & Kumar, Ritunesh & Cui, Ping & Ma, Zhenjun, 2022. "A data-driven strategy using long short term memory models and reinforcement learning to predict building electricity consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PB).
    13. Amasyali, Kadir & El-Gohary, Nora M., 2018. "A review of data-driven building energy consumption prediction studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1192-1205.
    14. Yang, Xinyan & Zhang, Shicong & Xu, Wei, 2019. "Impact of zero energy buildings on medium-to-long term building energy consumption in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 574-586.
    15. Paul Anton Verwiebe & Stephan Seim & Simon Burges & Lennart Schulz & Joachim Müller-Kirchenbauer, 2021. "Modeling Energy Demand—A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-58, November.
    16. Wenninger, Simon & Kaymakci, Can & Wiethe, Christian, 2022. "Explainable long-term building energy consumption prediction using QLattice," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    17. Zekić-Sušac, Marijana & Mitrović, Saša & Has, Adela, 2021. "Machine learning based system for managing energy efficiency of public sector as an approach towards smart cities," International Journal of Information Management, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    18. Baglivo, Cristina & Congedo, Paolo Maria & Murrone, Graziano & Lezzi, Dalila, 2022. "Long-term predictive energy analysis of a high-performance building in a mediterranean climate under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    19. Turki Alajmi & Patrick Phelan, 2020. "Modeling and Forecasting End-Use Energy Consumption for Residential Buildings in Kuwait Using a Bottom-Up Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-19, April.
    20. D'Agostino, D. & Parker, D. & Epifani, I. & Crawley, D. & Lawrie, L., 2022. "How will future climate impact the design and performance of nearly zero energy buildings (NZEBs)?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    21. Zhong, Hai & Wang, Jiajun & Jia, Hongjie & Mu, Yunfei & Lv, Shilei, 2019. "Vector field-based support vector regression for building energy consumption prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 403-414.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Homod, Raad Z. & Mohammed, Hayder Ibrahim & Abderrahmane, Aissa & Alawi, Omer A. & Khalaf, Osamah Ibrahim & Mahdi, Jasim M. & Guedri, Kamel & Dhaidan, Nabeel S. & Albahri, A.S. & Sadeq, Abdellatif M. , 2023. "Deep clustering of Lagrangian trajectory for multi-task learning to energy saving in intelligent buildings using cooperative multi-agent," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 351(C).
    2. Ramos, Paulo Vitor B. & Villela, Saulo Moraes & Silva, Walquiria N. & Dias, Bruno H., 2023. "Residential energy consumption forecasting using deep learning models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ding, Zhikun & Chen, Weilin & Hu, Ting & Xu, Xiaoxiao, 2021. "Evolutionary double attention-based long short-term memory model for building energy prediction: Case study of a green building," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    2. Fath U Min Ullah & Noman Khan & Tanveer Hussain & Mi Young Lee & Sung Wook Baik, 2021. "Diving Deep into Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting: Comparative Analysis and a Novel Framework," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-22, March.
    3. Shamim Akhtar & Muhamad Zahim Bin Sujod & Syed Sajjad Hussain Rizvi, 2022. "An Intelligent Data-Driven Approach for Electrical Energy Load Management Using Machine Learning Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-19, August.
    4. Cao, Wenqiang & Yu, Junqi & Chao, Mengyao & Wang, Jingqi & Yang, Siyuan & Zhou, Meng & Wang, Meng, 2023. "Short-term energy consumption prediction method for educational buildings based on model integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    5. Ijaz Ul Haq & Amin Ullah & Samee Ullah Khan & Noman Khan & Mi Young Lee & Seungmin Rho & Sung Wook Baik, 2021. "Sequential Learning-Based Energy Consumption Prediction Model for Residential and Commercial Sectors," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-17, March.
    6. Luo, X.J. & Oyedele, Lukumon O. & Ajayi, Anuoluwapo O. & Akinade, Olugbenga O. & Owolabi, Hakeem A. & Ahmed, Ashraf, 2020. "Feature extraction and genetic algorithm enhanced adaptive deep neural network for energy consumption prediction in buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Chou, Jui-Sheng & Tran, Duc-Son, 2018. "Forecasting energy consumption time series using machine learning techniques based on usage patterns of residential householders," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 709-726.
    8. Wang, Ran & Lu, Shilei & Feng, Wei, 2020. "A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    9. Zhaocheng Li & Yu Song, 2022. "Energy Consumption Linkages of the Chinese Construction Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-13, February.
    10. Yongjie Yang & Yulong Li & Yan Cai & Hui Tang & Peng Xu, 2024. "Data-Driven Golden Jackal Optimization–Long Short-Term Memory Short-Term Energy-Consumption Prediction and Optimization System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-20, July.
    11. Fateme Dinmohammadi & Yuxuan Han & Mahmood Shafiee, 2023. "Predicting Energy Consumption in Residential Buildings Using Advanced Machine Learning Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-23, April.
    12. Liu, Che & Li, Fan & Zhang, Chenghui & Sun, Bo & Zhang, Guanguan, 2023. "A day-ahead prediction method for high-resolution electricity consumption in residential units," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    13. Wenninger, Simon & Kaymakci, Can & Wiethe, Christian, 2022. "Explainable long-term building energy consumption prediction using QLattice," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    14. Zou, Rongwei & Yang, Qiliang & Xing, Jianchun & Zhou, Qizhen & Xie, Liqiang & Chen, Wenjie, 2024. "Predicting the electric power consumption of office buildings based on dynamic and static hybrid data analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    15. Meihang Zhang & Hua Zhang & Wei Yan & Zhigang Jiang & Shuo Zhu, 2023. "An Integrated Deep-Learning-Based Approach for Energy Consumption Prediction of Machining Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-17, March.
    16. Kapp, Sean & Choi, Jun-Ki & Hong, Taehoon, 2023. "Predicting industrial building energy consumption with statistical and machine-learning models informed by physical system parameters," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    17. Haizhou Fang & Hongwei Tan & Ningfang Dai & Zhaohui Liu & Risto Kosonen, 2023. "Hourly Building Energy Consumption Prediction Using a Training Sample Selection Method Based on Key Feature Search," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-23, May.
    18. Fang, Xi & Gong, Guangcai & Li, Guannan & Chun, Liang & Li, Wenqiang & Peng, Pei, 2021. "A hybrid deep transfer learning strategy for short term cross-building energy prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PB).
    19. Sunil Kumar Mohapatra & Sushruta Mishra & Hrudaya Kumar Tripathy & Akash Kumar Bhoi & Paolo Barsocchi, 2021. "A Pragmatic Investigation of Energy Consumption and Utilization Models in the Urban Sector Using Predictive Intelligence Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-28, June.
    20. Venkatraj, V. & Dixit, M.K., 2022. "Challenges in implementing data-driven approaches for building life cycle energy assessment: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:339:y:2023:i:c:s0306261923003446. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.