IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v332y2023ics0306261922017524.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty analysis of photovoltaic cells to determine probability of functional failure

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Feng
  • Wang, Xinhe
  • Wang, Weiyue
  • Zhang, Jiajia
  • Du, Ruijie
  • Li, Bingqiang
  • Liu, Wei

Abstract

In engineering practice, extensive uncertainties exist in photovoltaic (PV) cell material parameters owing to manufacturing process errors and in PV cell working environment parameters owing to environmental uncertainties. Ignoring the uncertainty of these parameters will greatly reduce the reliability of photovoltaic cells. In this study, a PV cell model was used to conduct an uncertainty analysis based on functional failure. Functional failure is defined as output power fluctuation beyond the specified range, and functional safety region is defined as the allowable fluctuation range of output power during operation. A global sensitivity analysis method based on the Monte Carlo method was employed to study the influence of parameter fluctuation on the functional failure probability of a PV cell. An uncertainty analysis method based on Latin hypercube sampling was applied to study the influence of parameters on the probability of PV cell operation in the functional safety domain. The results indicate that the uncertainty of surface temperature had the most significant influence on the failure probability, followed by the ideality factor, radiation intensity, and current temperature coefficient, the series and parallel resistances had the smallest impact. Optimal values of 510.200 W/m2, 284.600 K, and 1.446 were obtained for radiation intensity, surface temperature, and ideality factor, respectively, which ensured that system functional failure probability remained in the safety zone with values of 93.763 %, 99.211 %, and 98.856 %, respectively. Additionally, the lower series resistance and the higher parallel resistance, the more likely the system to operate in the functional safety domain. The results of study expand the evaluation standard for PV cell operation and ensure the desired system output power.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Feng & Wang, Xinhe & Wang, Weiyue & Zhang, Jiajia & Du, Ruijie & Li, Bingqiang & Liu, Wei, 2023. "Uncertainty analysis of photovoltaic cells to determine probability of functional failure," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:332:y:2023:i:c:s0306261922017524
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.120495
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261922017524
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.120495?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Isidoro Lillo-Bravo & Pablo González-Martínez & Miguel Larrañeta & José Guasumba-Codena, 2018. "Impact of Energy Losses Due to Failures on Photovoltaic Plant Energy Balance," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-23, February.
    2. Shivashankar, S. & Mekhilef, Saad & Mokhlis, Hazlie & Karimi, M., 2016. "Mitigating methods of power fluctuation of photovoltaic (PV) sources – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1170-1184.
    3. Bermudez-Garcia, Anderson & Voarino, Philippe & Raccurt, Olivier, 2021. "Environments, needs and opportunities for future space photovoltaic power generation: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    4. Waqar Akram, M. & Li, Guiqiang & Jin, Yi & Chen, Xiao, 2022. "Failures of Photovoltaic modules and their Detection: A Review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    5. de Jong, P. & Sánchez, A.S. & Esquerre, K. & Kalid, R.A. & Torres, E.A., 2013. "Solar and wind energy production in relation to the electricity load curve and hydroelectricity in the northeast region of Brazil," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 526-535.
    6. Zhang, Feng & Wang, Xinhe & Hou, Xinting & Han, Cheng & Wu, Mingying & Liu, Zhongbing, 2022. "Variance-based global sensitivity analysis of a hybrid thermoelectric generator fuzzy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    7. Ökten, Giray & Liu, Yaning, 2021. "Randomized quasi-Monte Carlo methods in global sensitivity analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    8. Ambrosone, G. & Catalanotti, S. & Coscia, U. & Fontana, F. & Troise, G. & Vicari, L., 1985. "Photovoltaic fields: Influence of the array structure on power loss due to cell failures," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 47-67.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tang, Wuqin & Yang, Qiang & Dai, Zhou & Yan, Wenjun, 2024. "Module defect detection and diagnosis for intelligent maintenance of solar photovoltaic plants: Techniques, systems and perspectives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    2. Cabrera-Tobar, Ana & Bullich-Massagué, Eduard & Aragüés-Peñalba, Mònica & Gomis-Bellmunt, Oriol, 2016. "Review of advanced grid requirements for the integration of large scale photovoltaic power plants in the transmission system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 971-987.
    3. Arévalo, Paul & Benavides, Dario & Tostado-Véliz, Marcos & Aguado, José A. & Jurado, Francisco, 2023. "Smart monitoring method for photovoltaic systems and failure control based on power smoothing techniques," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 366-383.
    4. Lu, Qing & Yu, Hao & Zhao, Kangli & Leng, Yajun & Hou, Jianchao & Xie, Pinjie, 2019. "Residential demand response considering distributed PV consumption: A model based on China's PV policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 443-456.
    5. Shan, Chuan & Sun, Kangwen & Ji, Xinzhe & Cheng, Dongji, 2023. "A reconfiguration method for photovoltaic array of stratospheric airship based on multilevel optimization algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    6. Frate, Cláudio Albuquerque & Brannstrom, Christian & de Morais, Marcus Vinícius Girão & Caldeira-Pires, Armando de Azevedo, 2019. "Procedural and distributive justice inform subjectivity regarding wind power: A case from Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 185-195.
    7. Dujardin, Jérôme & Kahl, Annelen & Kruyt, Bert & Bartlett, Stuart & Lehning, Michael, 2017. "Interplay between photovoltaic, wind energy and storage hydropower in a fully renewable Switzerland," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 513-525.
    8. Cheng Yang & Fuhao Sun & Yujie Zou & Zhipeng Lv & Liang Xue & Chao Jiang & Shuangyu Liu & Bochao Zhao & Haoyang Cui, 2024. "A Survey of Photovoltaic Panel Overlay and Fault Detection Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-37, February.
    9. Frank, Matthias & Deja, Robert & Peters, Roland & Blum, Ludger & Stolten, Detlef, 2018. "Bypassing renewable variability with a reversible solid oxide cell plant," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 101-112.
    10. Byuk-Keun Jo & Gilsoo Jang, 2019. "An Evaluation of the Effect on the Expansion of Photovoltaic Power Generation According to Renewable Energy Certificates on Energy Storage Systems: A Case Study of the Korean Renewable Energy Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-17, August.
    11. Jung, WoongHee & Taflanidis, Alexandros A., 2023. "Efficient global sensitivity analysis for high-dimensional outputs combining data-driven probability models and dimensionality reduction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    12. Carlos Toledo & Lucía Serrano-Lujan & Jose Abad & Antonio Lampitelli & Antonio Urbina, 2019. "Measurement of Thermal and Electrical Parameters in Photovoltaic Systems for Predictive and Cross-Correlated Monitorization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-20, February.
    13. Lai, Wenzhe & Zhen, Zhao & Wang, Fei & Fu, Wenjie & Wang, Junlong & Zhang, Xudong & Ren, Hui, 2024. "Sub-region division based short-term regional distributed PV power forecasting method considering spatio-temporal correlations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    14. Harrison-Atlas, Dylan & Murphy, Caitlin & Schleifer, Anna & Grue, Nicholas, 2022. "Temporal complementarity and value of wind-PV hybrid systems across the United States," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 111-123.
    15. Almorox, Javier & Voyant, Cyril & Bailek, Nadjem & Kuriqi, Alban & Arnaldo, J.A., 2021. "Total solar irradiance's effect on the performance of empirical models for estimating global solar radiation: An empirical-based review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    16. Rahman, Md Momtazur & Khan, Imran & Field, David Luke & Techato, Kuaanan & Alameh, Kamal, 2022. "Powering agriculture: Present status, future potential, and challenges of renewable energy applications," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 731-749.
    17. Andrés Velastegui-Montoya & Aline de Lima & Viviana Herrera-Matamoros, 2022. "What Is the Socioeconomic Impact of the Tucuruí Dam on Its Surrounding Municipalities?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-11, January.
    18. Ephraim Bonah Agyekum & Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo & Festus Victor Bekun & Nallapaneni Manoj Kumar & Manoj Kumar Panjwani, 2021. "Effect of Two Different Heat Transfer Fluids on the Performance of Solar Tower CSP by Comparing Recompression Supercritical CO 2 and Rankine Power Cycles, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, June.
    19. Herrera, Milton M. & Dyner, Isaac & Cosenz, Federico, 2020. "Benefits from energy policy synchronisation of Brazil’s North-Northeast interconnection," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 427-437.
    20. Herrera, Milton M. & Dyner, Isaac & Cosenz, Federico, 2019. "Assessing the effect of transmission constraints on wind power expansion in northeast Brazil," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-1.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:332:y:2023:i:c:s0306261922017524. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.