IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i9p5058-d800031.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of Renewable Energy Policies on CO 2 Emissions Reduction and Energy Security Using System Dynamics: The Case of Small-Scale Sector in Jordan

Author

Listed:
  • Abbas Al-Refaie

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Jordan, Amman 11942, Jordan)

  • Natalija Lepkova

    (Department of Construction Management and Real Estate, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Sauletekio av. 11, 10223 Vilnius, Lithuania)

Abstract

Renewable energy policies, such as feed-in-tariffs (FiTs) and subsidy policies, have been reported effective in enhancing the social acceptability to install solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Nevertheless, a quantitative assessment approach is still needed to measure the extent to which these policies can achieve the clean energy goals and support the decision-making process. This study, therefore, develops system dynamics models to assess the impacts of PV policies on the social acceptability to install PV systems, energy security, and CO 2 emission reduction in the small-scale sector in Jordan. Simulation was then conducted from the period 2016 to 2050. The results for the FiTs (subsidy) policies showed that the predicted accumulated PV installations, power generated, and CO 2 emission reductions will reach 67.125 (88.38) Gigawatt (GW), 115.853 (152.588) Terra Wh (TWh), and 74.49 (98.114) million tons CO 2 , respectively. To achieve these goals, the required cumulative FiTs and subsidy policy costs are 2.2 and 7.59 billion USD, respectively. Sensitivity analyses followed to determine the optimal FiTs price and subsidy proportion that optimize PV goals under uncertainty. In conclusion, the developed models are found valuable tools for measuring the impacts of energy policies on PV goals and thereby provide great input information to the decision-making processes when selecting the appropriate energy policies and actions. In the end, adopting FiTs and/or subsidy policies, Jordan is expected to achieve a high level of clean energy security by 2050, which enhances energy capabilities and mitigates global warming. Future research will examine the factors that affect social acceptability for PV systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Abbas Al-Refaie & Natalija Lepkova, 2022. "Impacts of Renewable Energy Policies on CO 2 Emissions Reduction and Energy Security Using System Dynamics: The Case of Small-Scale Sector in Jordan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-19, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:9:p:5058-:d:800031
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/9/5058/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/9/5058/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Movilla, Santiago & Miguel, Luis J. & Blázquez, L. Felipe, 2013. "A system dynamics approach for the photovoltaic energy market in Spain¤," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 142-154.
    2. Hang Thi-Thuy Le & Eleonora Riva Sanseverino & Dinh-Quang Nguyen & Maria Luisa Di Silvestre & Salvatore Favuzza & Manh-Hai Pham, 2022. "Critical Assessment of Feed-In Tariffs and Solar Photovoltaic Development in Vietnam," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-20, January.
    3. Ye, Liang-Cheng & Rodrigues, João F.D. & Lin, Hai Xiang, 2017. "Analysis of feed-in tariff policies for solar photovoltaic in China 2011–2016," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 496-505.
    4. Hamed, Tareq Abu & Bressler, Lindsey, 2019. "Energy security in Israel and Jordan: The role of renewable energy sources," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 378-389.
    5. Ahmad, Salman & Tahar, Razman Mat & Muhammad-Sukki, Firdaus & Munir, Abu Bakar & Rahim, Ruzairi Abdul, 2015. "Role of feed-in tariff policy in promoting solar photovoltaic investments in Malaysia: A system dynamics approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 808-815.
    6. Patricia Milanés-Montero & Alberto Arroyo-Farrona & Esteban Pérez-Calderón, 2018. "Assessment of the Influence of Feed-In Tariffs on the Profitability of European Photovoltaic Companies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, September.
    7. Hou, Guofu & Sun, Honghang & Jiang, Ziying & Pan, Ziqiang & Wang, Yibo & Zhang, Xiaodan & Zhao, Ying & Yao, Qiang, 2016. "Life cycle assessment of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation from crystalline silicon solar modules in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 882-890.
    8. Aslani, Alireza & Wong, Kau-Fui V., 2014. "Analysis of renewable energy development to power generation in the United States," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 153-161.
    9. Abdelrahman Azzuni & Arman Aghahosseini & Manish Ram & Dmitrii Bogdanov & Upeksha Caldera & Christian Breyer, 2020. "Energy Security Analysis for a 100% Renewable Energy Transition in Jordan by 2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-26, June.
    10. Jeon, Chanwoong & Shin, Juneseuk, 2014. "Long-term renewable energy technology valuation using system dynamics and Monte Carlo simulation: Photovoltaic technology case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 447-457.
    11. Rahim Zahedi & Alireza Zahedi & Abolfazl Ahmadi, 2022. "Strategic Study for Renewable Energy Policy, Optimizations and Sustainability in Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-29, February.
    12. Aslani, Alireza & Helo, Petri & Naaranoja, Marja, 2014. "Role of renewable energy policies in energy dependency in Finland: System dynamics approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 758-765.
    13. Abbas Al-Refaie & Dua'a Younes Abdelrahim, 2021. "A system dynamics model for green logistics in a supply chain of multiple suppliers, retailers and markets," International Journal of Business Performance and Supply Chain Modelling, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 12(3), pages 259-281.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abbas Al-Refaie & Natalija Lepkova & Constantinos Hadjistassou, 2023. "Using System Dynamics to Examine Effects of Satisfaction with PV Systems, Advertising, and Competition on Energy Security and CO 2 Emissions in Jordan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-25, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sommerfeldt, Nelson & Madani, Hatef, 2017. "Revisiting the techno-economic analysis process for building-mounted, grid-connected solar photovoltaic systems: Part one – Review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1379-1393.
    2. Armin Leopold, 2016. "Energy related system dynamic models: a literature review," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 24(1), pages 231-261, March.
    3. Milad Mousavian, H. & Hamed Shakouri, G. & Mashayekhi, Ali-Naghi & Kazemi, Aliyeh, 2020. "Does the short-term boost of renewable energies guarantee their stable long-term growth? Assessment of the dynamics of feed-in tariff policy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 1252-1268.
    4. Abbas Al-Refaie & Natalija Lepkova & Constantinos Hadjistassou, 2023. "Using System Dynamics to Examine Effects of Satisfaction with PV Systems, Advertising, and Competition on Energy Security and CO 2 Emissions in Jordan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-25, October.
    5. Bukhary, Saria & Ahmad, Sajjad & Batista, Jacimaria, 2018. "Analyzing land and water requirements for solar deployment in the Southwestern United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 3288-3305.
    6. Becerra-Fernandez, Mauricio & Sarmiento, Alfonso T. & Cardenas, Laura M., 2023. "Sustainability assessment of the solar energy supply chain in Colombia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    7. Hengtian Wang & Xiaolong Yang & Xinxin Xu & Liu Fei, 2021. "Exploring Opportunities and Challenges of Solar PV Power under Carbon Peak Scenario in China: A PEST Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-28, May.
    8. Monica Castaneda & Sebastian Zapata & Andres Aristizabal, 2018. "Assessing the Effect of Incentive Policies on Residential PV Investments in Colombia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-17, October.
    9. Qureshi, Shahab & Phan-Van, Long & Nguyen, Linh Dan & Nguyen-Duc, Tuyen, 2023. "Rooftop solar policies feasibility assessment model: Vietnam case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    10. Tang, Lei & Guo, Jue & Zhao, Boyang & Wang, Xiuli & Shao, Chengcheng & Wang, Yifei, 2021. "Power generation mix evolution based on rolling horizon optimal approach: A system dynamics analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    11. Ruxu Sheng & Juntian Du & Songqi Liu & Changan Wang & Zidi Wang & Xiaoqian Liu, 2021. "Solar Photovoltaic Investment Changes across China Regions Using a Spatial Shift-Share Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-14, October.
    12. Serena Sandri & Hussam Hussein & Nooh Alshyab, 2020. "Sustainability of the Energy Sector in Jordan: Challenges and Opportunities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-25, December.
    13. Dahlke, Steven & Sterling, John & Meehan, Colin, 2019. "Policy and market drivers for advancing clean energy," OSF Preprints hsbry, Center for Open Science.
    14. Iddio, E. & Wang, L. & Thomas, Y. & McMorrow, G. & Denzer, A., 2020. "Energy efficient operation and modeling for greenhouses: A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    15. Xin-gang, Zhao & Wei, Wang & Ling, Wu, 2021. "A dynamic analysis of research and development incentive on China's photovoltaic industry based on system dynamics model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    16. García-Álvarez, María Teresa & Cabeza-García, Laura & Soares, Isabel, 2018. "Assessment of energy policies to promote photovoltaic generation in the European Union," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 864-874.
    17. Liu, Pei & Lin, Borong & Zhou, Hao & Wu, Xiaoying & Little, John C., 2020. "CO2 emissions from urban buildings at the city scale: System dynamic projections and potential mitigation policies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    18. Walter Leal Filho & Abdul-Lateef Balogun & Dinesh Surroop & Amanda Lange Salvia & Kapil Narula & Chunlan Li & Julian David Hunt & Andrea Gatto & Ayyoob Sharifi & Haibo Feng & Stella Tsani & Hossein Az, 2022. "Realising the Potential of Renewable Energy as a Tool for Energy Security in Small Island Developing States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-21, April.
    19. Ahmad, Salman & Tahar, Razman Mat & Muhammad-Sukki, Firdaus & Munir, Abu Bakar & Rahim, Ruzairi Abdul, 2015. "Role of feed-in tariff policy in promoting solar photovoltaic investments in Malaysia: A system dynamics approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 808-815.
    20. Dianat, Fateme & Khodakarami, Vahid & Hosseini, Seyed-Hossein & Shakouri G, Hamed, 2022. "Combining game theory concepts and system dynamics for evaluating renewable electricity development in fossil-fuel-rich countries in the Middle East and North Africa," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 805-821.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:9:p:5058-:d:800031. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.