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Evaluation of power investment decisions under uncertain carbon policy: A case study for converting coal fired steam turbine to combined cycle gas turbine plants in Australia

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  • Shahnazari, Mahdi
  • McHugh, Adam
  • Maybee, Bryan
  • Whale, Jonathan

Abstract

Greenhouse gas (GHG) intensive fuels are currently a major input into the Australian electricity sector. Accordingly, climate change mitigation policies represent a systematic risk to investment in electricity generation assets. Although the Australian government introduced carbon pricing in 2012 and announced a commitment to the continuation of the Kyoto protocol beyond 2012, the opposition at the time signalled that should they be provided the opportunity they would repeal these policies. This paper uses a real options analysis (ROA) framework to investigate the optimal timing of one potential business response to carbon pricing: investment in the conversion of coal plant to lower emission CCGT plant. An American-style option valuation method is used for this purpose. The viewpoint is from that of a private investor assessing three available options for an existing coal plant: (1) to invest in its conversion to CCGT; (2) to abandon it, or; (3) to take no immediate action. The method provides a decision criterion that informs the investor whether or not to delay the investment. The effect of market and political uncertainty is studied for both the Clean Energy Act 2011 (CEA) and high carbon price (HCP) policy scenarios. The results of the modelling suggest that political uncertainty after the implementation of carbon pricing impedes the decision to switch to cleaner technologies. However, this effect can be mitigated by implementing higher expected carbon prices.

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  • Shahnazari, Mahdi & McHugh, Adam & Maybee, Bryan & Whale, Jonathan, 2014. "Evaluation of power investment decisions under uncertain carbon policy: A case study for converting coal fired steam turbine to combined cycle gas turbine plants in Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 271-279.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:118:y:2014:i:c:p:271-279
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.12.050
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    7. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P. & Liu, G.Q., 2016. "Optimal feed-in tariff for solar photovoltaic power generation in China: A real options analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 181-192.
    8. ShahNazari, Mahdi & McHugh, Adam & Maybee, Bryan & Whale, Jonathan, 2014. "The effect of political cycles on power investment decisions: Expectations over the repeal and reinstatement of carbon policy mechanisms in Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 157-165.
    9. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, P. & Zhou, D.Q., 2016. "A real options model for renewable energy investment with application to solar photovoltaic power generation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 213-226.
    10. Romano, Teresa & Fumagalli, Elena, 2018. "Greening the power generation sector: Understanding the role of uncertainty," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 272-286.
    11. Mingming Zhang & Dequn Zhou & Hao Ding & Jingliang Jin, 2016. "Biomass Power Generation Investment in China: A Real Options Evaluation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-22, June.
    12. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P. & Chen, H.T., 2017. "Optimal design of subsidy to stimulate renewable energy investments: The case of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 873-883.
    13. Linnerud, Kristin & Andersson, Ane Marte & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2014. "Investment timing under uncertain renewable energy policy: An empirical study of small hydropower projects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 154-164.
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