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Compound climate events transform electrical power shortfall risk in the Pacific Northwest

Author

Listed:
  • S. W. D. Turner

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Seattle Research Center)

  • N. Voisin

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Seattle Research Center
    University of Washington)

  • J. Fazio

    (Northwest Power and Conservation Council)

  • D. Hua

    (Northwest Power and Conservation Council)

  • M. Jourabchi

    (Northwest Power and Conservation Council)

Abstract

Power system reliability is sensitive to climate-driven variations in both energy demand and water availability, yet the combined effect of these impacts is rarely evaluated. Here we show that combined climate change impacts on loads and hydropower generation may have a transformative effect on the nature and seasonality of power shortfall risk in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Under climate change, potential shortfall events occur more readily, but are significantly less severe in nature. A seasonal reversal in shortfall risk occurs: winter shortfalls are eradicated due to reduced building heating demands, while summer shortfalls multiply as increased peak loads for day-time cooling coincide with impaired hydropower generation. Many of these summer shortfalls go unregistered when climate change impacts on loads and hydropower dispatch are analyzed in isolation—highlighting an important role of compound events.

Suggested Citation

  • S. W. D. Turner & N. Voisin & J. Fazio & D. Hua & M. Jourabchi, 2019. "Compound climate events transform electrical power shortfall risk in the Pacific Northwest," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-07894-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-07894-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Travis C. Douville & Dhruv Bhatnagar, 2021. "Exploring the Grid Value of Offshore Wind Energy in Oregon," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Qin, Pengcheng & Xu, Hongmei & Liu, Min & Xiao, Chan & Forrest, Kate E. & Samuelsen, Scott & Tarroja, Brian, 2020. "Assessing concurrent effects of climate change on hydropower supply, electricity demand, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Upper Yangtze River Basin of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    3. Voisin, Nathalie & Dyreson, Ana & Fu, Tao & O'Connell, Matt & Turner, Sean W.D. & Zhou, Tian & Macknick, Jordan, 2020. "Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    4. Srihari Sundar & Michael T. Craig & Ashley E. Payne & David J. Brayshaw & Flavio Lehner, 2023. "Meteorological drivers of resource adequacy failures in current and high renewable Western U.S. power systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    5. Pengcheng Qin & Hongmei Xu & Min Liu & Lüliu Liu & Chan Xiao & Iman Mallakpour & Matin Rahnamay Naeini & Kuolin Hsu & Soroosh Sorooshian, 2022. "Projected impacts of climate change on major dams in the Upper Yangtze River Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-24, January.
    6. Turner, Sean W.D. & Nelson, Kristian & Voisin, Nathalie & Tidwell, Vincent & Miara, Ariel & Dyreson, Ana & Cohen, Stuart & Mantena, Dan & Jin, Julie & Warnken, Pete & Kao, Shih-Chieh, 2021. "A multi-reservoir model for projecting drought impacts on thermoelectric disruption risk across the Texas power grid," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    7. Cohen, Stuart M. & Dyreson, Ana & Turner, Sean & Tidwell, Vince & Voisin, Nathalie & Miara, Ariel, 2022. "A multi-model framework for assessing long- and short-term climate influences on the electric grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    8. Zhao, Xiaohu & Huang, Guohe & Li, Yongping & Lu, Chen, 2023. "Responses of hydroelectricity generation to streamflow drought under climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    9. Sean W. D. Turner & Ganesh R. Ghimire & Carly Hansen & Debjani Singh & Shih-Chieh Kao, 2024. "Hydropower capacity factors trending down in the United States," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    10. O'Connell, & Voisin, Nathalie & Macknick, & Fu,, 2019. "Sensitivity of Western U.S. power system dynamics to droughts compounded with fuel price variability," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 745-754.
    11. Oikonomou, Konstantinos & Tarroja, Brian & Kern, Jordan & Voisin, Nathalie, 2022. "Core process representation in power system operational models: Gaps, challenges, and opportunities for multisector dynamics research," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    12. Eduardo de la Rocha Camba & Fontina Petrakopoulou, 2020. "Earth-Cooling Air Tunnels for Thermal Power Plants: Initial Design by CFD Modelling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-19, February.
    13. Su, Yufei & Kern, Jordan D. & Reed, Patrick M. & Characklis, Gregory W., 2020. "Compound hydrometeorological extremes across multiple timescales drive volatility in California electricity market prices and emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).

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